Auburn Tigers (20-9) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (17-12)
NCAA BB: Tuesday, March 5, 2019 at 9 pm (Coleman Coliseum at The University of Alabama)
Line and Odds: Alabama +2.5 — Over/Under: 145
NCAA BB Picks and Parlays Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers
The Auburn Tigers look to finish their last road game of the regular in prime fashion with a win over in state rival, Alabama.
Auburn is the superior offensive team, especially when at home. However, Auburn will be on the road in this contest. The Tigers are the better of both teams in total score, field goal percentage at 45.01%, three point shooting at 37.73%, and free throws. The team also attempts way more threes than their in state rival. The edge Alabama has over this squad is in total rebounds. Potentially not having Austin Wiley in this match-up will hurt the squad in the rebounding competition, as he is second in the team in racking up boards behind forward Chuma Okeke. Center Austin Wiley has been downgraded to doubtful for the match-up against the Crimson Tide.
Defensively, Auburn also holds opponents to lesser points per page at 68.38 points compared to Alabama at 71.55. If Bryce Brown builds upon his 24 point performance Saturday’s home victory of Mississippi State, then Auburn will be hard to beat again in this contest. Auburn must must shoot at a high percentage, especially early in the game if they want to win.
As previously stated, Auburn has the advantage in shooting, especially 3 point shooting. If Alabama wants to win as home dogs, they will need to chase the Auburn marksmen out of the 3 point line and win the rebounding game in order to limit second chance opportunities for the Tigers. One of the things the Crimson Tide have going for them in their quest is that they hold opponent’s to a three point shooting percentage of 32.79%. At home, their defensive statistics are even better as they hold teams to just 29.58% 3 point shooting.
On the offensive side of the ball, they’re going to have to win by spreading the ball around to get the best shot, dominate the boards to create second chance opportunities, and get back on defense to run Auburn’s 3 point shooters off the line. If they can do so, they will keep the game very close late in the fourth quarter. The team’s leading scorer Kira Lewis Jr. will need to put forth a better performance than what he did in his last outing against LSU where he only scored 7 points.
Cover The Spread 365 NCAA BB Betting Trends:
Auburn is 7-3 in the last 10 games head-to-head against Alabama
Auburn is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games
Auburn is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 road games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Auburn’s last 7 games
Alabama is 3-2 in their last 5 home games
Alabama is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 home games
Alabama is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Alabama’s last 8 games
FREE NCAA BB Expert Picks Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Auburn is playing very good basketball at the right time, at home or on the road. Alabama will be ready to show up in their last home against their rival. Alabama has the tools defensively to give Auburn some issues in rebounding and defending the three. However, it will still be a challenge for Alabama to do so consistently throughout the game. This will be a close game that will come down to the final few minutes. In that situation, I am taking the better team in Auburn to execute and make enough timely plays. The reason I am going with Auburn -2.5 is because the line is small and I think the last 30 seconds will be Auburn making free throws to ice the game.
PICK: Auburn -2.5