Arkansas Razorbacks (14-13) vs #4 Kentucky Wildcats (23-4)
NCAA Basketball: Tuesday, February 26, 2019, at 9:00 PM EST, Rupp Arena
Spread: Kentucky -15.5 Over/Under: 142.5
FREE ESPN NCAA Basketball Pick Arkansas Razorbacks vs #4 Kentucky Wildcats
The regular season is winding down and teams are still jockeying to get a position at the top of their respective conferences. For the Kentucky Wildcats that is no different. Currently, LSU, Tennessee, and Kentucky all have a 12-2 record in conference. LSU has the necessary tie-breakers to win outright should each team win out the season. The Arkansas Razorbacks are not a good team, but anything can happen on any given night. Kentucky will have to bring their A-game.
The Arkansas Razorbacks have not fared well this season. They are just barely above .500 and will probably finish below that mark by the time the season ends. They don’t have much to play for except possibly a better seed in the NIT. This team is going to struggle against Kentucky unless Kentucky doesn’t bring it tonight in Rupp Arena.
Daniel Gafford is leading the way this season, as many expected, for the Razorbacks. The future first-round pick is averaging 16.6PPG while pulling in 8.9RPG and swatting 2BPG. He makes over 66% of his shots but rarely comes out for a mid-range jumper. Even rarer is a three, he is 0.0% on the season. Freshman Isaiah Joe averages 14.1PPG and shoots 41.7% from three. The young guard is going to be a great centerpiece for Arkansas next season.
As a team, Arkansas averages 76.26PPG, on 44.55% from the field, 32.35% from three, and they pull down 34.48RPG. These numbers are not great and they rank 74th, 143rd, 217th, and 177th in the nation respectively. They are not good offensively and they struggle to rebound outside of Gafford. KenPom has Arkansas as the 66th best team, their offensive efficiency is rated 102nd and their defensive efficiency is rated 62nd. Kentucky probably puts the clamps on this Arkansas team.
The Kentucky Wildcats passed their first test since losing senior Reid Travis temporarily to injury. They absolutely dismantled the Auburn Tigers with an onslaught of three-point shooting. Will they be able to keep that same momentum as they face Arkansas? The numbers say, probably. The Wildcats are ranked higher in every offensive category and their defensive numbers are heads above Arkansas’. Let’s get into it.
Leading the way for the Kentucky Wildcats, is PJ Washington. The way that Washington has played over the last 10 games has been remarkable. The performances he has had should put him in the conversation for SEC POY and a spot on an All-American team. The last 11 games, PJ has averaged 20.2PPG, 7.8RPG, and 1BPG. He has dominated players like Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield from Tennessee and many others. Expect PJ Washington to have another great performance Tuesday night.
The Kentucky Wildcats are averaging 78.26PPG, on 48.04% from the field, 35.94% from three, and they pull down 38.78RPG. Those averages rank 42nd, 21st, 84th, and 26th respectively. Those averages are all higher than Arkansas’. The Wildcats have recently moved up again in KenPom, they are sitting at 5th right now. Their offensive efficiency is rated 10th and their defensive efficiency rated 8th. Those numbers have been getting increasingly better as the season has gone on.
Cover the Spread 365 Betting Trends
Arkansas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Arkansas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arkansas’s last 11 games
Arkansas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Arkansas is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
#4 Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Kentucky is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kentucky’s last 7 games
Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Kentucky is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kentucky’s last 7 games at home
FREE ESPN NCAA Basketball Pick #4 Kentucky Wildcats vs Arkansas Razorbacks
These teams are going to go at it. Arkansas does not shoot the ball well from deep, so they will probably have a season-high in Rupp Arena. It seems a lot of teams tend to do that. However, the defense of Kentucky will eventually kick in and shut down the Razorbacks. Without Reid Travis, the Cats shouldn’t have too much of a problem unless severe foul trouble befalls the big guys. I expect big games from PJ Washington, either Nick Richards or EJ Montgomery, and look for Keldon Johnson to bring some offense. Big win for the Wildcats.