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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Dayton Flyers

Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-1) vs Dayton Flyers (4-2)

NCAA Men’s Basketball: Saturday, November 30th, 2018, at 7:00 PM ET (UD Arena)

Line: Mississippi State -2.5, Over/Under 135.5

FREE NCAA Men’s Basketball Pick #25 Mississippi State Bulldogs Vs. Dayton Flyers 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are clinging to their #25 ranking at 5-1 as they hit the road for the first time this season to take on the A-10’s Dayton Flyers in a rare SEC/A-10 battle.

 

Mississippi State Preview

Miss St. makes its living on the defensive end, surrendering a paltry 61.8 points per game this season.Led by senior guard Quinndary Weatherspoon and his 17 points per game, the Bulldogs’s top four scorers are all juniors and seniors. A ranked team led by upperclassmen needs to make a statement on the road, especially when you consider how surprising the SEC has been thus far with Auburn and Tennessee joining the often-ranked Kentucky in the top 10. Mississippi State is coming off an 88-65 blowout of Alcorn St., a matchup that saw them shoot 61% and hit 11 threes while notching 24 assists to Alcorn State’s 10. Quinndary’s younger brother, Nick, found himself in that game against Alcorn State notching 17 points of 6-10 shooting while starting alongside big bro. Dayton is no pushover whatsoever, and this is going to be a fantastic test to see what Mississippi State is made of. This is the team’s only true road game of the entire season until January 8th, so they need to make a statement.

 

Dayton Preview

The Flyers enter this one as the underdogs and fresh off two consecutive losses to big-conference foes. Dayton was able to hang admirably with #4 Virginia before falling 66-59. The Flyers then followed that up with a 65-54 stinker against Oklahoma and now they’re starting a 3-game skid dead in the eyes. They deserve plenty of credit for loading up an impressive non-conference gauntlet on their schedule (#8 Auburn looms next week as well) but the offense has to get cooking against these squads. Dayton has no issue dropping 75+ points on North Florida, Coppin State and Purdue Fort Wayne, but has scored under 70 in the last three against Butler, Virginia and Oklahoma. Dayton also has three guys sitting out this season after transfers and will be without guard Jhery Matos for this one. Combined with the transfers and redshirt of freshman forward Frankie Policelli, not to mention this team leaving one of its 13 scholarships unused, Dayton is short-handed and any injury has a substantial impact. There are only four players scoring in double figures so far, so it is time for one of these guys to step up in order to lock up Dayton’s first home win over a top-25 team since 2011.

 

Trends by Cover the Spread 365

Dayton Flyers

Dayton is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games

Dayton has won 9 of 10 games at home

The UNDER is 4-2 this season

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Miss State is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games

Miss State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

The OVER is 2-4 this season

 

FREE NCAA Men’s Basketball Pick: #25 Mississippi State Bulldogs Vs. Dayton Flyers

The ATS for these two teams is absolutely wild. You don’t often see discrepancies that large, so I’m wondering if this line is factoring that in. Is Dayton being a home dog a correction for its putrid performance lately in their attempts to cover the spread? Do we take the bait? Not an easy decision here, but I don’t appreciate what Vegas is doing here and we’re going with the Bulldogs on the road. The contrarian in me wants to believe that both these teams are due for a regression to the mean because being 8-10 games over or under .500 against the spread over such a small sample size is absurd. As for the points? Give me the under. Neither of these teams scores a whole lot, and Dayton being down a man considering they’re already shorthanded does not make me feel good. It’s no fun…but we’re going under!

The Pick: Miss State -2.5, Under 135.5

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