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2019 SEC Championship Odds and Picks – Who is the best pick?

It’s that time of the year when all the talking heads and betting experts across America try and tell us all who they think will win the SEC this season, even though realistically, everybody knows that it will be Alabama hoisting the SEC Championship trophy once again come December. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t speculate, and who knows if this is a year the Saban Dynasty tumbles to the cellar? Here is a full list of the odds for this year’s SEC Championship game, released by FanDuel.

Mississippi State+2300
Texas A&M+2700
Missouri+3500 (Missouri is ineligible due to NCAA violations)
South Carolina+5000
Ole Miss+12500

Some interesting odds here, and the one that stands out for me is how low the bookmakers think of Texas A&M. Let’s break down a few of these odds.

Best Bet – Texas A&M (+2700)

27/1 odds for a team that won 9 games in 2018 and appears to be on the up with a promising young quarterback and a national championship-caliber head coach? This is an incredible bet, especially considering that worse teams like Mississippi State and Kentucky have better odds than the Aggies do. Not only do the Aggies have better potential to go all the way  than the former 2 teams, but they are also a significantly better team than the Bulldogs or Wildcats right now! It’s mind boggling how low a Jimbo Fisher-coached team’s odds are, and if you’re looking for a good bet, you should step on this one in a heartbeat.

Worst Bet – Missouri (+3500) and Mississippi State (+2300)

Missouri is the worst bet here by default, as they’re ineligible for the SEC Championship game because of their recent NCAA violations, so any bets on them will be an automatic loss of money. Mississippi State is also a bit of an odd wager; 23/1 seems a bit optimistic on the Bulldogs, considering their offseason losses (their ENTIRE defensive line to the draft, three defensive players going in the first round, their starting center, and their quarterback), so it seems like FanDuel is banking a lot on Penn State graduate transfer QB Tommy Stevens to step into Joe Moorhead’s system and produce godlike statistics from the get-go. Stevens never even started at Penn State, so it seems like a bit of a stretch to bet on Mississippi State at 23/1.

Personal Pick – Texas A&M (+2700)

My best bet is also my personal pick. Boring, right? But at 27/1, betting against the Texas A&M Aggies is great value. Kellen Mond ascended into stardom in 2018, leading Texas A&M to 9 wins with 3107 passing yards, a 24:9 TD:INT ratio, 474 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs along the way. Jimbo Fisher knows what a great quarterback looks like (Famous Jameis, anybody?), and Mond has Heisman potential on a talented team. This team is only improving from here, and Mond is surrounded by a solid group of playmakers, a good defense, no major losses outside of RB Trayveon Williams (replaced with a back-by-committee group) and starting C Erik McCoy, and one of the conference’s best coaches in Jimbo Fisher. 10 wins is the expectation in College Station, and this team should end up shocking a few people across the south.

It seems likely that it in fact will be Alabama coming out of the SEC championship game, and Georgia looks like it should be there too. But there are some other good bets in amongst the group that punters should not be looking past (and remember, don’t sleep on Texas A&M).