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Florida State at Miami – 10/6/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Florida State Seminoles (3-2) at Miami-FL Hurricanes (4-1)

College Football: Saturday, October 6, 2018 at 3:30 pm (Hard Rock Stadium)

The Line: Miami-FL Hurricanes -13.5 — Over/Under: 48.5




Quarterback Deondre Francois missed last year’s meeting with Miami due to injury but he is hoping to be the difference-maker this time around and he has shown improvement over the last few weeks both on the ground and through the air, leading the ACC in passing yardage (1,377) and ranking second in yards per game (275.4). Francois will be aided by an offensive line that started a different combination in each of its first five games but appeared to gel last week, not giving up a sack for the first time since 2014 after surrendering 12 in the first four games. With the Hurricanes having so much success with their turnover chain, the Seminoles unveiled their turnover backpack at the beginning of the season, and they produced three of their six takeaways in the win over Louisville last week.

MIAMI (4-1, 1-0)

Richt made the decision to go with redshirt freshman N’Kosi Perry last week and he quietly got the job done in his first career start, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 125 yards and one touchdown with one interception but the team didn’t need him to come up big. That job was done by a swarming Miami defense that broke out the turnover chain six times against North Carolina (three INTs, three fumbles) — their most since also registering six takeaways vs. North Carolina State in 2012 — and three were returned for touchdowns to tie the school record. The unit figures to be even more dominant this week as star safety Jaquan Johnson returns after sitting out the last two games because of a knee injury and he had 12 tackles and broke up a pass in Miami’s win over the Seminoles last year.

  • The Hurricanes own a 32-30 edge in this series, but Florida State has a 20-16 advantage in games played in Miami.
  •  The Seminoles’ comeback win at Louisville was their largest second-half comeback since erasing a 15-point halftime deficit in the 2016 opener versus Ole Miss.
  • Miami is ranked second in the nation in total defense (244.8 yards per game) and ranked fourth in takeaways (12).

The Seminoles are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, 0-9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in October. The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Miami, the underdog is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.


The Miami Hurricanes remain one of the top defensive teams in the country, but they now also have a quarterback capable of completing passes and allowing the offense to finish drives. For the first time in a while, Miami is a balanced football team that looks like it can make a run for an ACC title. I get that this is a rivarly and the underdog has dominated the trends with each of the last four meetings being decided by five or less points.

PICK: Over 48