You are here
Home > BIG 10 > Free College Football Pick & Odds: #25 Michigan State Spartans vs. #4 Ohio State Buckeyes 10-05-2019

Free College Football Pick & Odds: #25 Michigan State Spartans vs. #4 Ohio State Buckeyes 10-05-2019

#25 Michigan State Spartans (4-1) vs. #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)

Saturday, October 5, 2019 @ 7:30 PM EST

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, OH)

Moneyline: MSU (+880), OSU (-1500)

Spread: MSU +21 (-110), OSU -21 (-110)

Total: Over 49.5 (-110), Under 49.5 (-110)

Game Preview

Through 5 weeks, 4 clear Heisman favorites have emerged. One of those 4 is Ohio State’s Sophomore QB, Justin Fields.

Fields, who was ranked as the No. 2 overall recruit in the 2018 class, transferred from Georgia in January 2019 after seeing little playing time last season behind Sophomore QB, Jake Fromm, who finished the year tied for 1st in the FBS in touchdowns and was the 5th-most efficient passer in the nation.

This year, Fields has shown that he belongs in the conversation of college football’s elite quarterbacks, as well as elite dual-threat quarterbacks, as he has added an impressive 222 yards and 7 touchdowns on the ground to his already impressive passing stats.

Speaking of passing stats, Fields has thrown for 1,092 yards, 16 touchdowns, and most importantly, 0 interceptions. That gives him a Passer Rating of 194.4, which is good for 5th-highest in the country, behind the 3 other Heisman favorites (Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagavailoa, Joe Burrow) and Minnesota QB, Tanner Morgan.

TL;DR: Justin Fields has been really, really good this year.

However, Michigan State’s defense has earned their reputation as one of the toughest units in all of college football, especially in the past few years, as last week’s 40-31 victory over Indiana snapped their 16-game streak of not allowing 30+ points.

The Spartans have allowed just 15 points per game (14th in FBS) and their lone loss to Arizona State certainly wasn’t the defense’s fault, as the Spartans defense gave up just 216 total yards of offense and 10 points, but still lost 10-7. Both teams have been excellent at limiting their opponents’ run games, but the Spartans have a slight advantage over the Buckeyes in that aspect. MSU has allowed just 1.86 yards per carry and 55.8 rushing yards per game (4th in FBS) and the Buckeyes have allowed just 2.36 yards per carry and 85 rushing yards per game (15th in FBS).

Michigan State’s defense will certainly have their hands full with Ohio State’s offense, as they Buckeyes have put up over 535 yards per game (8th in FBS) and are averaging 52.4 points per game (3rd in FBS). But, the real concern for the Spartans will be on the offensive side of the ball, as they struggled at times in their opener against Tulsa and looked less than stellar against Arizona State in Week 3.

Overall, I think Ohio State’s high-octane offense will overpower the Spartan defense and Justin Fields will have a field day, as the Buckeyes roll to a big victory and a statement win.

Betting Trends

Ohio State is 7-0 ATS following a SU win

Michigan State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games

The TOTAL has gone UNDER in each of their last 4 matchups in Columbus

Ohio State is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with winning records

Ohio State -21 (-110)