2019 NCAAF Florida State University
Tallahassee, Florida (Doak Campbell Stadium)
Over/Under: 7.5 Wins
2019-20 National Championship Odds: 120/1
Cover the Spread 365 NCAAF 2019 Florida State Win Total Prediction
The Noles finished 2018 season with a record of 5-7(3-5 ACC), their first losing record since 1976. Their hope is to bounce back from that record, and we will be looking at their chances to do it. After finishing second last on the Atlantic Division during the first year of Head Coach Willie Taggart, the Seminoles are being projected to have a 7-win record season this year.
They lost two important defensive pieces with Brian Burns and Demarcus Christmas entering this year’s draft and made some big changes on the offensive side dismissing Deondre Francois from the program, they lost former offensive coordinator, Walt Bell, to become UMass head coach and let go Offensive line coach Greg Frey after the disaster the offensive line was last year, not to mention the lack of development from the players. Their replacements for the coaching staff were Kendal Briles as Offensive Coordinator (former Baylor OC, the architect of their explosive offense) and Randy Clements as the Offensive Line coach.
Head coach Taggart has enough changes in place to once again prove he is at his best when he has to turn around a program as he has done in the past. The main change must start with a big improvement on the offensive line to help Running back Cam Akers and new starting Quarterback James Blackman, who started all 12 games in 2017 as a true freshman and 3 games last year (lost all three). The Seminoles brought in new linemen to do so including blue-chip recruit Dontae Lucas who is projected to be a starter. The RB room apparently lacks depth, but Cam Akers has proven he can be the workhorse and Khalan Laborn is a very exciting prospect, who is coming back from an injury, but if Akers goes down, probably the passing game could pick it up with some interesting prospects in the Receiver’s room.
With all those pieces in place, the Seminoles are poised to bounce back and here is a review of their 2019 schedule and projected probability to win for every game:
|August 31st||Boise St||46%|
|September 28th||N.C. St||66%|
|October 19th||@Wake Forest||62%|
|November 9th||@Boston College||67%|
|November 16th||Alabama St||100%|
The Average based on the projected probability of every game gives us 59% of winning their games, which makes sense with the projected number of this year wins for the Seminoles: 7.
Analyzing their schedule, we can assume the Seminoles have three very easy wins against UL-Monroe, Louisville and Alabama State, and there are other 4 winnable games against N.C. State, Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Boston College, being N.C. State and Boston College, probably, the hardest but still winnable games. If they win all the previous mentioned games, they will comply with the 7 wins forecast. However, there are some games that will be very tough to get the win, but the odds are not that bad, for example, the Boise State, Virginia and Miami games.
The Boise State game is HUGE for the aspirations of the Seminoles turnaround season and if they get the home opener, they could be in a good position to start the campaign 2-0 before their first away game against Virginia, although all three games are a toss-up. Especially interesting is that Miami home-game because the Seminoles will be looking for revenge after the heartbreaking loss last year and at that point of the season, aspirations could be high for both teams so, it will be very hard to predict.
The only two games that very well should be considered a no-way-win are the away games against Clemson and Florida. Although the upsets are always possible, these two games are on paper a very long shot for the Seminoles to get a win. Trevor Lawrence will take over college football once again and Florida’s starting Quarterback, Feleipe Frank, and his deep pool of skill players will be way too much for Florida State’s defense to handle.
According to the odds for the Seminoles, 7 wins seems just right so the under could be a safe bet. Although, there were several changes that could prompt this team to have a successful year, there is still too much risk to take the 8 wins for the Seminoles this year. Probably they still need one more year to settle in with Taggart system along with Briles offense to take off. They will also need a lot of help from their talented and young defensive players that just hasn’t stepped up yet. But with players like Marvin Wilson (DT), Joshua Kaindoh (DE), Stanford Samuels (DB) and Akeem Dent (CB) with world-class talent level on that defense, the Seminoles should be in good position to win some though, close games and get some upsets.
But… If we want to get bold and not going for the safe bets, here are some interesting numbers on the Seminoles odds this upcoming season: 120/1 to win the 2019-2020 CFP National Championship. Apertura has them listed +12500 odds and Bodog along with Bumbet are giving them +17000 odds. So, if you are looking for bold, big money bets, you should consider the Seminoles possibility to bounce back big this coming season and break all predictions.