Oregon Ducks (5-2, 2-2) @ Arizona Wildcats (3-5, 2-3)
NCAA Football Saturday, October 27th, 2018 at 10:30 pm (Arizona Stadium)
Line: Oregon -9.5 — Over/Under: 62
FREE NCAA Football Pick Oregon vs. Arizona
With both teams coming off tough division losses, the Oregon Ducks travel to Arizona in a get right matchup that could potentially feature a backup Rhett Rodriguez with Khalil Tate’s status still questionable.
Oregon: Whose Worth a Mention?
Well bettors, last week was a rough go for me. I had NC State stenciled in with sharpie as a lock to keep pace with a Clemson team who seemed to still be finding their footing. Trevor Lawrence laughed in my face. Anyways, we’re back ladies and gents and instead of Ryan Finley, we’re looking in on Justin Herbert and his 159.7 QBR which leads the Pac-12. Herbert, who started off with two north-of-200 QBR performances in his first games of the season has been able to maintain near prolific levels even if the floor fell out beneath him last week. To Herbert’s credit, the game was on pace to being a blowout, but he and the Ducks racked up 20 unanswered points to keep the game within reach. They still lost, but its worth noting. After Oregon’s only other loss this year, Herbert responded the next week hanging two touchdowns and 225 yards en route to a 42-24 beatdown of California. Look for a similar result this coming week.
Arizona: What’s the Deal in the Desert?
Not much, to be honest. Much of this game is predicated on whether or not Khalil Tate will suit up. If he doesn’t, Arizona’s back up, Rhett Rodriguez, is sure to face a superior defense, one that he conceivably should struggle with. A bright spot in the muck that has become Arizona’s season is J.J. Taylor who is second in the Pac-12 with 817 yards. I would love to gush over Taylor, but a deeper look at the numbers demonstrate a striking disappointment with over half his yardage coming in just two games (UCLA – 154/ Oregon St – 284). In the other 6 games, he’s scored only once and has yet to eclipse 90 yards. A stat that is almost certain to remain intact facing an Oregon defense currently ranked 23rd in the nation in allowed rushing yards per game (116.3 YPG). Furthering this trend of Arizona players who are sure to disappoint, Rhett Rodriguez is currently slated to face a secondary that possesses three defensive backs who have combined for 9 INTs (Amadi, Lenoir, Holland). Rodriguez, who just threw two picks against UCLA is sure to repeat a similar feat in this one.
Cover the Spread 365 Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon’s last 5 games when playing Arizona
Oregon is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon’s last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oregon
Arizona is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Simple bets don’t exist. There may be bets that have you feeling like Stephen Hawking waxing lyrically about the corners of the universe, almost as if you have it all figured out. If you’re a real bettor though, you know that sh*t isn’t true. With all that being said, I feel good about Oregon. The Ducks are the superior team and truly, a 9.5 spread is just Vegas paying respects to Arizona being a home team as a divisional opponent. As well, its Vegas saying Oregon may have just lost its definitive shot at a bowl game and let’s see if they’re willing to keep playing or if they’re going to pack it in. I don’t see it. Even if a hobbled Khalil Tate does play, he still threw two picks in this 2017 matchup and his dual-threat mobility of last year is nearly non existent as his 1400 yards and 12 touchdowns of yesteryear have diminished to a little over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. I’m putting my faith in Oregon.