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Phil Mickelson vs. Tiger Woods

Free Golf Prediction Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson "The Match"

Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson

Golf 3:00 pm ET on 11-23-2018 

Shadow Creek Golf Club, Las Vegas

“The Match”

Phil Mickelson vs. Tiger Woods

Year after year news comes out of some unusual matchup involving top athletes. We had Chris Johnson and Devin Hester racing a pair of cheetahs in 2013. Mayweather vs. McGregor in the boxing ring last year… even Michael Phelps racing a (fake) shark. Not to mention the inevitable Alabama vs. this year’s NFL bottom-feeder conversation that should be popping up any day now.

You know what all of them are lacking? Legitimacy. These showdowns take competitors at the top of their game and put them in a ridiculous scenarios that garner a ton of viewers, but its more “clickbait” than real. But Friday, that all changes. Here we go. A winner take all, $9 million, head-to-head showdown. This is the type of crazy matchup that sports fans dream of. Two athletes competing in an event they’ve essentially been training for their entire lives. Both among the all-time greats in the same game. No one is compromising their ability just to have a big pay day. Golf is what Tiger and Lefty do best. In my opinion, this is the most authentic head to head face-offs we’ve ever seen.

Would it have been more exciting if these two were 15 years younger? Honestly, I’m not so sure. These two have developed a deep friendship, over the past couple decades, that’ll keep the entire match light and fun… not to mention the money to burn. Two things that wouldn’t have been possible while they were battling it out in their primes – trying to cement their careers. One thing is for absolute certain; there will be plenty of side bets going on between them – so let’s join in on the fun. BetOnline has odds on an outright winner, and some fun props to make things even more interesting. Let’s look at those, find the best value and make some early predictions.

Tiger or Phil?:

Tiger Woods: -196

Phil Mickelson: +166

At first glance, I really like the underdog here. That being said, I would probably take the underdog if the betting odds for the two were flipped. Tiger has been getting all the press this year and rightfully so. Once the best athlete in the world, before disappearing from the public’s eye, he has shown back up on the radar and seems ready to prove to everyone, including himself, that he’s fully back.

You know what isn’t common knowledge? Phil has 6 top ten finishes, to Tiger’s 5, this year on the Tour.

They each rank in the top ten in total shots gained and outside of the top 100 in shots gained off-the-tee.

Hey, the old guys can’t keep up with the power of “Big Poppa Pump” Brooks Koepka and the boys.

That’s okay, though.

Tiger’s iron game sets him apart from Phil as Woods ranks in the top 11 in shots gained approaching the green, around the green, and tee-to-green. Lefty will attempt to make up the difference on the green with his trusty putter in hand. Mickelson ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour with over .8 shots gained putting while Woods is all the way back at 48th with less than .25 shots gained on the green.

This looks to be a battle of what man can beat the other at his own game. We can’t really look at recent performances, because they haven’t actually happened yet. I just can’t find the justification to lay -196 on Woods to win straight up. There are more inviting lines coming up and the underdog bet on the best putter of our generation is too inviting.

Tiger vs Phil Against the Spread:

Tiger Woods -1.5 Strokes: -105

Phil Mickelson +1.5 Strokes: -125

This spread seems a little more interesting. Only laying down (-125) to get an extra stroke on Lefty is pretty intriguing. It’s not that I’m not feeling Tiger Woods. He is coming off of his best performance in recent memory at the PGA Championship, but this match won’t be played for almost 90 days.

Who will the course favor?

That’s a question we should probably tackle if we can. Shadow Creek Golf Course in North Las Vegas is ranked as one of the top 25 courses in the world. The green fee is upwards of 500 dollars and the notable celebrity names like Michael Jordan and George Bush have lockers in the clubhouse. Built by Steve Wynn in 1987 and later sold to MGM, the course has been redesigned once. The golfer to hold a tie for the course record before it was altered is Tiger Woods who once shot a (60).

This betting line is the less forgiving of the two but if I had to choose, I like Phil +1.5 at (-125).

Pick: Phil Mickelson +1.5 Strokes: -125
PLACE YOUR BET!

Tiger Woods +1.5 Strokes: -260

Phil Mickelson -1.5 Strokes: +200

Minus 1.5 strokes will be tough for Phil, but for (+200), I don’t see why not. It definitely has more value than Tiger’s +1.5 (-260). Twice as much money is expected to be placed on Woods than Mickelson and sportsbooks are rich for a reason. This match will be played in Las Vegas on a course owned by the largest casino group in the country.  We can’t forget that. The odds are sure to shift, and probably so in the favor of Mickelson bettors, so be patient if you wish. As for how they sit now, I like Lefty here at plus money.

Phil Mickelson -1.5 Strokes: +200
PLACE YOUR BET!

Prop Bets:

Primary Shirt Color for Phil Mickelson

White: +175

Black: +250

Blue: +450

Any other color: +300

So, predicting the winner to the match is easy. The real test of any fan and/or bettor is predicting a shirt color, obviously.

Let’s begin with the favorite color of white. It is definitely Phil’s go-to color when he needs to be at his best.

There are other colors that have significantly more value, though.

I don’t like the pick for white because Phil is not young anymore. The man is almost 50 and will be one or two days removed from the biggest eating day of the year.

We all know what white can do to our figure, so let’s pass on that bet.

Phil likes black and blue but blue just doesn’t go with November or Thanksgiving.

Black is a much more likely choice.

He could surprise us with some maroon but since it’s post-Turkey Day and not quite Christmas season, I like the man to be in black.

Pick: Phil Mickelson to Wear a Black Shirt +250
PLACE YOUR BET!

Primary Shirt Color for Tiger Woods:

Red: +225

White: +300

Black: +500

Any other color: +175

It seems so obvious that you have to start second guessing yourself. It’s technically not a Sunday after all, so does Tiger actually go in another direction? Well, it is a winner take all, one round, event and if we take a look back into the archives you’ll find that he’s actually sported the patented “Sunday Red” on a Monday final round. Wearing red is a power move and no other athlete outside of Michael Jordan has ever done it better than Tiger Woods. Don’t think twice. Lock it up and rub it down.

Pick: Tiger Woods to Wear a Red Shirt +225
PLACE YOUR BET!

In Conclusion

It’s finally going down! Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have been rivals for the better part of two decades, and done so at the top of the golf world for at least one of those decades.

Loads of money will be wagered on this match in Las Vegas, online, in bars, and in living rooms across the world.

Now is your chance to jump on some odds early before they lose some of their value. BetOnline has odds on the outright winner as well as a couple different spreads of plus or minus 1.5 strokes.

Picking a winner with or without the spread is tough as both guys are pretty evenly matched statistically this year.

I like the plus money bets until we see who the late money comes in on. Until then, build up a little house money while you’re lounging around during the Turkey Day games.

Mick Flaherty
Mick Flaherty
Mick is an expert with give unparalleled advice when it comes to the NBA, NFL and college sports. No fancy stats, just observation and analysis!
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