Boston Red Sox (2-1) vs. New York Yankees (1-2)
MLB Baseball: Tuesday, October 8th, 8:07 pm ET (Yankee Stadium)
Odds: New York Yankees -125
FREE MLB PICK New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox will send Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.33) to the mound for his 10th visit against the Yankees. Porcello has not reached the 6th inning in each of his last starts, and has posted a 5.50 ERA over the last 7 games. The Red Sox have hit the OVER against New York in 6 out of their last 10 games, with the OVER coming in 4 of the last 5 games for Porcello. Offensively, the Red Sox will look to continue their offensive barrage, after compiling 16 runs and 18 hits en route to a Game 3 victory. Brock Holt was red-hot, hitting for the cycle and collecting 5 runs batted in.
New York will counter with left hander C.C. Sabathia (9-7, 3.65 ERA), as this should be his first post-season appearance of the playoffs. Sabathia is tasked with keeping the Yankees playoff hopes alive, and will look to win his third straight start. Although Sabathia has been stellar as mentioned, his last 3 starts have also gone OVER, so the Yankees are providing him with plenty of run support (29 runs in his last 3 starts). New York will look to get going offensively, as they have only averaged a little over 3 runs per game in this series. During the regular season, the Yankees were second in all of baseball in runs scored (851), trailing only the Red Sox (876).
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
Boston is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Boston is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Boston
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
FREE MLB PREDICTION Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
It’s hard to be sold on either pitcher being dominant despite recent trends, as both are fully capable of having a bad outing. As good as Sabathia was at the end of the regular season, I see him regressing more to the mean and exposing the Yankees bullpen for another night in a game where Aaron Boone used 6 different pitchers, including utility catcher Ausin Romine. The Yankees offense hasn’t looked great either, but they have averaged 5.5 runs in the last 10 games against the Red Sox, so this is another regression to the mean, as the Yankees should be able to scratch a couple more runs across the plate. The line is pretty close here, but I like this game to go OVER.