Cincinnati Reds (56-60) at Washington Nationals (62-55)
MLB Baseball: Monday, August 12th, 2019 at 7:05 PM ET (Nationals Park)
Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds (-105), Washington Nationals (-105)
The Cincinnati Reds travel to Washington D.C. to take on the Nationals in the first game of a 3-game series with NL Wild Card ramifications. The Nationals begin Monday's action with a 0.5 game lead for the first NL Wild Card spot. The Reds are 5 games back of the Cardinals for the second wild card spot and 5.5 games behind the Nationals. The Nationals defeated the hottest team in baseball, the New York Mets, 7-4 to avoid a series sweep at Citi Field. The Reds split a 4-game series with the division leading Cubs over the weekend and now sit 7 games behind them in the NL Central. The Nationals took 2 of 3 against the Reds in Cincinnati in their only previous matchup this season.
Cincinnati Reds are Statistically Undervalued
The Reds have been the second most unlucky team in baseball this season. They have the second worst differential between their W-L record and predicted Pythagorean W-L of -6. Only the Royals (-7) have a worse differential. Washington is fairly average with a -1 differential.
Despite being 5.5 games back of the Nationals for the 1st wild card spot, the pythagorean projected W-L records puts the Reds just 0.5 games behind of the Nats (63-54 vs 62-54). The Reds have the 11th best record in the NL this season, but they own the 6th best run differential at +39. The Nationals sit just above the Reds at 5th in run differential with +47.
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