Kansas City Royals (45-80) at Baltimore Orioles (39-86)
MLB: Tuesday, August 20th, 2019 at 7:05 pm ET (Oriole Park At Camden Yards)
Line and Odds: Baltimore Orioles -118/Kansas City Royals +108 Over/Under: 9.5
Free ESPN MLB Picks Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
The Royals rank 27th in scoring, averaging 4.29 runs per game. Kansas City especially struggles with generating power. Royals’ batters hit home runs on just 2.7% of their plate appearances, ranking 28th in home run percentage. Kansas City also ranks 28th in slugging percentage (.399) and on base plus slugging percentage (.705). The Royals rank 27th with an isolated power of .157. The Kansas City Royals got extra base hits on 8.0% of their plate appearances, ranking 26th in extra base hit percentage. Not only are they unable to increase their power, they also have trouble with simply getting on base. Kansas City ranks 27th with an on base percentage of .306. They have a batting average of. 243, which ranks 26th in the Majors. Kansas City’s batters draw walks on 7.6% of their plate appearances, ranking 25th in walk percentage. However, Kansas City becomes very aggressive when they do manage to get on base. They rank 2nd in both stolen bases and stolen base attempts per game. KC baserunners rank 9th with a stolen base percentage of 75.2%.
Kansas City allows 5.18 runs per game, ranking 23rd in runs allowed. As poor as their defensive stats are, their pitching does well at limiting their opponent’s power. Kansas City pitchers allow home runs on just 3.4% of their opponents’ plate appearances, ranking 10th in opponents’ home run percentage. KC ranks 11th with an opponents’ isolated power of .178. Just 35.4% of their opponents’ hits go for extra bases, a number that ranks 4th-best in baseball. The problem for the Royals has been the accumulation hits and walks they give up. Kansas City pitchers rank 27th with a WHIP of 1.455. They are 29th with an opponents’ on base percentage of .345. The Royals rank 28th in opponents’ batting average and 26th in opponents’ BABIP. Royals’ pitchers rank 29th in both strikeout percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Kansas City Royals will send 23-year-old Brad Keller to the mound as today’s starting pitcher. The young right-hander has been pretty solid in his time with the Royals. Despite his 7-13 record, Keller has been the Royals’ best starter this season. He has pitched 158 innings in 26 starts on the year. Keller has an ERA of 4.10, a WHIP of 1.348, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.80. He gives up 8.4 hits, 0.9 home runs, and 4.27 runs per 9 innings.
The Orioles’ offense is one of the worst in all of baseball. Baltimore scores 4.34 runs per game, ranking 26th in run production. Their on base plus slugging percentage of .715 ranks 25th in the MLB. In all of the important offensive statistical categories, Baltimore ranks in the bottom third of the Majors. Baltimore’s offense ranks 24th in slugging percentage (.409) and 27th in on base percentage (.307). Their low ranking in slugging percentage is driven by their low batting average and low isolated power numbers. Baltimore ranks 23rd in both batting average (.244) and isolated power (.165). Baltimore’s offense struggles in each of the “three true outcome” statistics. They rank 23rd in home run percentage, 22nd in strikeout percentage, and 26th in walk percentage.
Baltimore allows a whopping 6.44 runs per game, ranking 30th in runs allowed. The high amount of runs given up is the #1 reason why Baltimore ranks last in terms of run differential. They rank 29th in opponents’ batting average, 12th in opponents’ BABIP, and 24th in opponents’ walk percentage. In pretty much everything else, the Orioles rank 30th out of 30 teams. Baltimore ranks dead last in opponents’ slugging percentage, opponents’ on base percentage, opponents’ OPS, opponents’ isolated power, opponents’ home run %, opponents’ strikeout %, opponents’ extra base hit %, WHIP, ERA, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Having said that, they are hoping that their starter will put them in a better position today. Dylan Bundy makes today’s start as the pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles. Bundy pitched pretty well in 2016 and 2017, but opposing batters have figured him out in the last couple of years. He has pitched for a total of 120 innings in 23 starts, this season. Dylan Bundy has an ERA of 5.25, a WHIP of 1.342, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.98. He gives up 9.0 hits, 1.9 home runs, and 5.63 runs per 9 innings.
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games.
Kansas City is 5-13 SU in their last 18 games.
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Baltimore.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Baltimore’s last 14 games.
Baltimore is 0-8 SU in their last 8 games.
Baltimore is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Kansas City.
ESPN MLB Scores Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
I’m taking the Kansas City Royals at +108 in this matchup. First off, I get the starting pitching advantage with the Royals. The big difference between the Royals’ Brad Keller and the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy, is that Keller simply doesn’t allow home runs. Keller allows a full home run less than Bundy per 9 innings pitched. While Kansas City and Baltimore have similar offensive numbers, the Orioles give up far more runs than the Royals do. It’s the reason the Orioles are on pace to have the worst run differential of the last 15 years. Baltimore loses games by an average of -2.10 runs per game. The Royals are bad, but the Orioles are one of the worst teams we’ve seen in a long time. Even with the homefield advantage, Baltimore is simply not worthy of being a favorite in this spot. Take Kansas City on the moneyline.