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Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles

Kansas City Royals (45-81) at Baltimore Orioles (40-86)

MLB: Wednesday, August 21th, 2019 at 7:05 pm ET (Oriole Park At Camden Yards)

Line and Odds: Kansas City Royals -105/Baltimore Orioles -105 Over/Under: 10.5

Free ESPN MLB Picks Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals

Kansas City

The Royals rank 27th in scoring, averaging 4.26 runs per game. Kansas City especially struggles with generating power. Royals’ batters hit home runs on just 2.7% of their plate appearances, ranking 28th in home run percentage. Kansas City also ranks 28th in slugging percentage (.398) and on base plus slugging percentage (.704). The Royals rank 27th with an isolated power of .156. The Kansas City Royals got extra base hits on 8.0% of their plate appearances, ranking 26th in extra base hit percentage. Not only are they unable to increase their power, they also have trouble with simply getting on base. Kansas City ranks 27th with an on base percentage of .306. They have a batting average of .242, which ranks 26th in the Majors. Kansas City’s batters draw walks on 7.6% of their plate appearances, ranking 25th in walk percentage. However, Kansas City becomes very aggressive when they do manage to get on base. They rank 2nd in both stolen bases and stolen base attempts per game. KC baserunners rank 9th with a stolen base percentage of 75.2%.

Kansas City allows 5.17 runs per game, ranking 22nd in runs allowed. As poor as their defensive stats are, their pitching does well at limiting their opponent’s power. Kansas City pitchers allow home runs on just 3.4% of their opponents’ plate appearances, ranking 10th in opponents’ home run percentage. KC ranks 11th with an opponents’ isolated power of .177. Just 35.4% of their opponents’ hits go for extra bases, a number that ranks 4th-best in baseball. The problem for the Royals has been the accumulation hits and walks they give up. Kansas City pitchers rank 28th with a WHIP of 1.454. They are 29th with an opponents’ on base percentage of .345. The Royals rank 28th in opponents’ batting average (.271) and 25th in opponents’ BABIP (.311). Royals’ pitchers rank 29th in both strikeout percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Kansas City will send Mike Montgomery to the mound as today’s starting pitcher. Montgomery has pitched 56 and 1/3 innings in 26 pitching appearances. He started the season with the Chicago Cubs where he made 20 relief appearances. Since he’s been with the Royals, Ned Yost has used Montgomery as a starter (6 starts). On the year, Montgomery has a 4.63 ERA, 1.544 WHIP, and 2.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has given up 11.0 hits and 1.6 home runs per 9 innings.

Baltimore

The Orioles’ offense is one of the worst in all of baseball. Baltimore scores 4.34 runs per game, ranking 26th in run production. Their on base plus slugging percentage of .715 ranks 25th in the MLB. In all of the important offensive statistical categories, Baltimore ranks in the bottom third of the Majors. Baltimore’s offense ranks 24th in slugging percentage (.408) and 27th in on base percentage (.307). Their low ranking in slugging percentage is driven by their low batting average and low isolated power numbers. Baltimore ranks 23rd in both batting average (.244) and isolated power (.164). Baltimore’s offense struggles in each of the “three true outcome” statistics. They rank 22nd in home run percentage (3.3%), 22nd in strikeout percentage (23.9%), and 26th in walk percentage (7.4%).

Baltimore allows a whopping 6.40 runs per game, ranking 30th in runs allowed. The high amount of runs given up is the #1 reason why Baltimore ranks last in terms of run differential. They rank 29th in opponents’ batting average, 12th in opponents’ BABIP, and 22nd in opponents’ walk percentage. In pretty much everything else, the Orioles rank 30th out of 30 teams. Baltimore ranks dead last in opponents’ slugging percentage, opponents’ on base percentage, opponents’ OPS, opponents’ isolated power, opponents’ home run %, opponents’ strikeout %, opponents’ extra base hit %, WHIP, ERA, and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Based on how today’s starting pitcher has performed for the Orioles, I don’t expect these numbers to get any better against the Royals. Aaron Brooks will make the start in today’s game for the Baltimore Orioles. Brooks began the season with the Oakland Athletics, but was designated for assignment in July. The Orioles acquired Brooks off waivers on July 6th. This season, he has pitched 77 and 2/3 innings in 22 pitching appearances (13 as starter, 9 as reliever). He has an ERA of 6.49, a WHIP of 1.429 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.77. His numbers have been worse since he joined the Orioles. In 7 starts for Baltimore, Brooks has a 9.22 ERA on 27 and 1/3 innings pitched.

Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends

Royals

Kansas City are 5-14 SU in their last 19 games.

Kansas City are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Baltimore.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City’s last 12 games this season.

Orioles

Baltimore are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Baltimore’s last 18 games against Kansas City.

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Baltimore’s last 15 games this season.

ESPN MLB Scores Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles

I’m taking the Kansas City Royals at -105 in this matchup. The only edge Baltimore has against the Royals is homefield advantage. Both teams are fairly even on offense, but the Orioles’ pitching is some of the worst we’ve seen. They are on pace to have the worst run differential of any team since 2004. Their scoring margin of -2.06 is easily the worst in the Majors, right now. I expect Orioles P Aaron Brooks to have a rough outing today. Kansas City will be able to pounce early on Brooks’ 9.22 ERA. Baltimore may be able to get some hits on Montgomery, but not enough to head into the bullpen battle with a lead. If Baltimore goes to their bullpen with a scoreboard deficit, the game is pretty much over for them. Kansas City should win a high scoring game.

Kansas City Royals -105
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