Miami Marlins (45-70) at Atlanta Braves (74-52)
Tuesday, August 20th, 2019 7:20 EST (SunTrust Park)
Spread: Marlins (+230) Braves (-270) O/U: 9.5
Free MLB Pick Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves
In this preview we'll be taking a look at game one of this series between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves. The Braves will continue their home stand, with this being the 7th game in a row at SunTrust Park for them, while the Marlins are fresh off a series against the Rockies out in Colorado. This matchup is a tale of two very different teams, as Miami is one of the worst in the league and clearly needs to continue to rebuild. On the other hand, the Braves are gearing up for the postseason. They signed tonight's starting pitcher, Dallas Keuchel, earlier in the season, and traded for multiple relief pitchers at the deadline. With that said, it might seem obvious as to why Atlanta is a big favorite to win this game, but let's break it down a bit further to try and find some value.
For Miami, Elieser Hernandez will be making his 10th start of the season. As a rookie, he mainly pitched in relief for the Marlins last year, only starting 6 out of the 32 games he appeared in. He put up less than desirable numbers, and after finishing with a 5.21 ERA, he began this season down in Triple A. After being converted to a starter, he looked like a completely different pitcher. He led the league in almost every category, with the highest strikeout rate, least home runs allowed, and the lowest ERA. Before being called up this season, he threw for 48 innings, giving up 35 hits, 14 walks, and 0 home runs. Oh, and he also struck out 69 batters. This all amounted to a filthy looking 1.13 ERA. In the minors, not allowing any long balls was his best asset, but in the majors this year, it's been his main weakness. Over 53 innings, he's given up 50 hits, 19 walks, and 15 home runs, along with striking out 55 hitters. It's clear why he has a 5.40 ERA this season, he absolutely has to get back to limiting those home runs. The rest of his numbers have genuinely remained great, so it's quite puzzling why after not giving up any home runs in Triple A, he's given up 15x that in about the same time span for Miami. The easy answer would be that he's facing major league hitters, which is plenty true, but at the same time, it's only a very small part of the problem. Whatever the fix needs to be, he'll have plenty of time to find it, as he only turned 24 in May.
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