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Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox

Minnesota Twins (80-51) at Chicago White Sox (60-71)

MLB: Wednesday, August 28th, 2019 at 8:10 pm ET (Guaranteed Rate Field)

Line and Odds: Minnesota Twins -180/Chicago White Sox +162 Over/Under: 10.5

Free ESPN MLB Picks Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins


The Minnesota Twins rank 2nd in runs scored, averaging 5.83 runs per game. Minnesota also ranks 2nd in the MLB with an on base plus slugging percentage of .837. The Twins have the most powerful batting lineup in all of baseball. Their slugging percentage of .500 ranks #1 in the Majors. They hit home runs on 4.9% of their plate appearances, ranking 1st in home run percentage. Minnesota also ranks 1st in extra base hit percentage, getting extra base hits on 10.4% of their plate appearances. 42.9% of their hits go for extra bases, the highest rate in all of baseball. Minnesota’s offense also ranks #1 in total bases per game (17.71) and isolated power (.229). The Twins have an on base percentage of .337, which ranks 6th in the MLB in OBP. Their offense ranks 4th in both batting average (.270) and strikeout percentage (20.7%). Their OBP would be in the top 5 if it wasn’t for their batting average on balls in play and walk percentage. Twins’ batters rank 14th in BABIP (.299) and 20th in walk percentage (8.0%). As strong as they are at the plate, their baserunning leaves a lot to be desired. Minnesota’s basreunners rank 30th out of 30 teams in stolen base % and stolen bases per game.

Minnesota gives up 4.66 runs per game, ranking 13th in runs allowed. They allow opponents to acquire 14.57 total bases per game which ranks 12th in total bases allowed. Minnesota ranks 8th with an opponents’ on base plus slugging percentage of .732. They also rank 8th in both opponents’ slugging percentage (.416) and opponents’ on base percentage (.316). I would describe the Twins as having a strong pitching staff, but a relatively weak defense. The Twins’ pitching staff ranks 5th in home run percentage, 3rd in walk percentage, and 6th in opponents’ extras base hit percentage. They also rank 10th in WHIP and 6th in strikeout to walk percentage. However, the Twins’ defense ranks 22nd in BABIP, 25th in errors per game, and 26th in opponents’ stolen base percentage. Today’s starting pitcher for the Twins will be Jake Odorizzi. The 29-year-old is having the best season of his career. He has a 13-6 record and he made his first all-star game. Odorizzi has a 3.57 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, and 2.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He gives up 8.0 hits, 1.0 home runs, and 3.78 runs per 9 innings. He averages about 5 and 1/3 innings per start before turning the ball over to the bullpen.


In contrast with the Twins, the Chicago White Sox have a very difficult time putting up runs. Chicago scores 4.19 runs per game, ranking 28th in run production. Their offense ranks 27th with 17.62 total bases acquired per game. The White Sox are 27th with an on base plus slugging percentage of .708 and a slugging percentage of .401. Chicago ranks in the bottom 5 of the MLB in every offensive power metric. Chicago’s offense as an isolated power of .146, ranking 29th in the MLB. Their batters hit home runs on just 2.9% of their plate appearances, ranking them 25th in home run percentage. The White Sox are 29th in the Majors in terms of extra base hit percentage and hits for extra bases percentage. They got extra base hits on 7.3% of their plate appearances, and just 31.4% of their total hits went for extra bases. Chicago’s bats also tend to struggle with simply getting on base. They rank 25th with an OBP of .307. They rank 27th in strikeout percentage and 30th in walk percentage. However, they can grind out hits when they put the ball in play. The White Sox actually rank 2nd in BABIP (.321). Unfortunately for them, those opportunities come few and far between.

While the White Sox offense has been abysmal, the pitching and fielding haven’t been much better. Chicago allows 5.08 runs per game, ranking 22nd in runs allowed. They allow opponents to get 15.28 total bases per game, ranking 19th in total bases allowed. Their opponents’ on base plus slugging percentage of .787 is 21st in the MLB. The White Sox are also 21st in opponents’ slugging percentage (.451). Chicago’s pitchers rank 23rd in WHIP (1.315) and 25th in strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.29). Opponents’ hit home runs on 3.8% of their plate appearances, making the White Sox 21st in opponents’ home run percentage. Chicago will send Ross Detwiler to the mound as today’s starting pitcher. We don’t have a ton of data on Detwiler’s recent performance because he hasn’t pitched that much, recently. He has only pitched 53 and 1/3 Major League innings in the last 3 years! This year, he has pitched 47 and 1/3 innings in 12 pitching appearances (7 as starter, 5 in relief). Detwiler has an ERA of 5.51, a WHIP of 1.479, and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.92.

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The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games.

Minnesota is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games.

Minnesota is 13-5 SU in their last 18 games against the White Sox.

White Sox

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago’s last 6 games.

The White Sox are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Chicago’s last 14 games at home.

ESPN MLB Scores Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox

I’m taking the Minnesota Twins (-1.5) at -130 in this matchup. The Twins were able to get the 3-1 win over the White Sox yesterday, but the White Sox had the starting pitcher edge going in. I expect the Twins to handle Chicago more thoroughly in this one because Minnesota has the big pitching advantage. Detwiler hasn’t pitched much and hasn’t been strong when he has taken the mound. On the other hand, the Twins have an all-star pitcher on the mound in Jake Odorizzi. I expect the Twins to put up big numbers against Detwiler and the White Sox bullpen and cruise to a multi-run victory. Odorizzi will limit the opportunities for Chicago batters to get on base and the game will be out of reach by the time the Twins’ bullpen becomes a factor. Take Minnesota on the runline.

Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-130)