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Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers

Minnesota Twins (96-60) at Detroit Tigers (46-109)

MLB: Tuesday, September 24th, 2019 at 6:40 pm ET (Comerica Park)

Line and Odds: Minnesota Twins-230/Detroit Tigers +205 Over/Under: 9.5

Free ESPN MLB Picks Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins


The Twins are looking to clinch the AL Central title in the next few days. They currently have a 4 game lead over the 2nd-place Cleveland Indians. The Twins are 96-60 and the Indians are 92-64. Minnesota’s AL-Central clinching magic number at the moment is 3. While Minnesota hasn’t yet clinched a playoff spot like the Astros or Yankees, both ESPN and Baseball Reference give them a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. There were doubts about Minnesota’s sustainability when they got off to a great start to the season. The Twins are proving that they have what it takes to make a run to the postseason this year. Minnesota’s +169 run differential ranks 4th in the MLB, behind the Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees. The most impressive aspect of their season has been their road performance. Minnesota’s 50-25 road record is the best of any team in baseball.

The Minnesota Twins are led by their explosive batting lineup. The Twins average 5.81 runs per game, ranking 2nd in runs scored. They’ve hit for 17.51 total bases per game, a mark that ranks them #1 in the MLB in total bases. Minnesota ranks 3rd in on base plus slugging percentage with an OPS of .833. Minnesota is statistically average from a pitching and fielding standpoint. The Twins rank 14th in runs allowed, giving up 4.72 runs per game. They allow opposing teams to hit for 14.77 total bases per game, ranking 15th in total bases allowed. Minnesota’s defense ranks 11th in on base plus slugging percentage against, allowing opponents an OPS of .739. Jake Odorizzi will make the start for Minnesota Twins today. Odorizzi has been the ace of the Twins pitching staff, this season. Odorizzi has a 14-7 record on 29 starts and 146 innings pitched. He has an ERA of 3.59, a 1.235 WHIP, and a 3.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has allowed 8.1 hits, 0.9 home runs, and 3.76 runs per 9 innings.


I’m not sure any team is happier to see the 2019 MLB season end than the Detroit Tigers. It has been a long year with few wins for the Tigers. In a league with terrible teams like the Royals, Marlins, and Orioles, I think it’s fair to conclude that the Tigers are the worst of them all. Detroit’s 46-109 record is the worst in all of baseball. They are currently 49.5 games out of first-place in the AL Central. The Tigers also claim the worst run differential in baseball at -314 on the year. The only other team in the Majors with a run differential of -200 or worse is the Baltimore Orioles (-265). Obviously, there is no hope of postseason play for Detroit. The players and coaches would like to finish the season (even if the fans would prefer more losses for better draft position). While Minnesota has been the best road team in baseball, the Tigers have been the worst home team in baseball. Detroit has the worst home record in the MLB at 22-56. It has been one of the worst home seasons the sport of baseball has seen in a long time.

The Detroit offense has been particularly abysmal this season. The Tigers score just 3.66 runs per game, which ranks them 30th out of 30 MLB teams in scoring. They rank 29th in total bases per game, hitting for 13.46 total bases per outing. Detroit also ranks 29th in on base plus slugging percentage with an OPS of .686. The Tigers have been slightly better defensively, but their defense has also been poor. Detroit has given up 5.68 runs per game, ranking 27th in runs allowed. They rank 28th in on base plus slugging percentage against, allowing opponents to go for an OPS of .823. Spencer Turnbull will get the nod as the starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers. Turnbull may be the best starter Detroit has, but his numbers still look poor. He has pitched 137 innings in 28 total starts. He has a 3-15 record and those 15 losses are the highest loss total of any pitcher in the Majors. Turnbull has a 4.66 ERA, 1.467 WHIP, and a 2.39 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He allows 9.5 hits, 0.9 home runs, and 5.26 runs per 9 innings.

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The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 9 games.

Minnesota are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games on the road.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Minnesota’s last 20 games this season.


The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit’s last 7 games.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit’s last 9 games against Minnesota.

Detroit is 5-13 SU in their last 18 games at home.

ESPN MLB Scores Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers

I’m taking the Detroit Tigers +1.5 (+130) in this matchup. This is a pure value play for me. I’m going to lean on the home team getting 1.5 runs at plus-money. I respect Spencer Turnbull’s ability to limit home runs. He has only allowed 0.9 home runs per 9 innings. He has an ERA+ of 102, which means he has an above average ERA when ballpark aspects are factored in. Also, Detroit’s offense ranks 4th in BABIP. They hit for a batting average on balls in play of .309. If they can get contact on Odorizzi’s pitches, they can grind out some runs. Minnesota’s defense isn’t as strong as its offense, so it can potentially be exploited. They rank 24th in BABIP, defensively. Minnesota’s fielders allow opponents to hit for a BABIP of .311. The Twins also struggle with allowing stolen bases, ranking 28th in opponents’ stolen base percentage (81.2%). I’m looking for a strong outing from Spencer Turnbull, Tigers batters hitting for a high BABIP, and strong baserunning to keep this game close. Take the Tigers on the runline.

Detroit Tigers +1.5 (+130)