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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox (1-1) vs. New York Yankees (1-1)

MLB Baseball Monday October 8th, 2018 at 6:40 PM CT (Yankee Stadium)

Nathan Eovaldi (ERA 3.81) vs. Luis Severino (ERA 3.39)

Line and Odds: Boston Red Sox +160, New York Yankees -190, Over/Under 8.5

FREE MLB Prediction and Odds Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Over/Under (8.5)

Welcome to another fine day for October baseball! Let’s check out our FREE MLB Over/Under pick for ALDS Game 3 between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees.

Channeling their inner Christopher Columbus, the Boston Red Sox are looking to go into unknown territory tonight to try and pick up a road win facing The New York Yankees in the Bronx. Instead of bringing three ships, the Sawx come in with three hot bats as J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moorland, and Stephen Pierce are picking up right where they left off during the regular year. Things aren’t all rosy for the Red Sox as Mookie Betts, the favorite for AL MVP, has managed only a single hit through two postseason games. Along with Mookie’s untimely disappearance, Ian Kinsler is making Dave Dombrowski’s late-season trade look foolish with five strikeouts in this series so far.

The Yankees counter with a lineup that seems to be hitting on all cylinders right now. While they were unable to snatch game one after coming back from a 5-0 deficit to lose 5-4, the Yankees nabbed a hard-fought game two at Fenway. Aaron Judge hit another home run which would easily be the headline – if catcher Gary Sanchez hadn’t outdone him with an even bigger blast. Sanchez looked locked in Saturday, hitting two big flies including a monster 479 footer. David Price was unable to get out of the second inning as he moved to an almost unbelievable 0-9 career record in postseason play. The momentum appears to be on the Yankees’ side going into tonight’s pivotal game three.

Tonight’s game three contest finds Yankees ace Luis Severino, fresh of a 19-win regular season, facing off against Red Sox spot-starter Nathan Eiovaldi. Rick Porcello was initially slated to take the ball tonight, but is unavailable after Red Sox manager Alex Cora used him as in relief in game two. Severino’s talent is well-publicized, but a lot of casual baseball fans might not realize how good Eiovaldi has been recently. Eiovaldi’s unimpressive 6-7 record this season, combined with his career mark of 44-53, makes him look unreliable in a big game like this one. The journeyman pitcher is with his fifth team in seven years after starting the 2018 season in Tampa Bay. A deeper dive into Eiovaldi’s stats shows him with unexpectedly strong numbers in 2018. The former Ray had a career-best 1.12 WHIP between his Tampa and Boston appearances. He also has displayed excellent control in 2018, striking out over 100 batters while issuing only 20 walks in 21 appearances. Although both pitchers are coming off strong regular seasons, the trends for this game skew heavily towards the OVER.

CoverTheSpread’s MLB Betting Trends:

Red Sox Trends

Over is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 games following a loss.
Over is 4-0-1 in Red Sox last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 8-1-1 in Red Sox last 10 vs. American League East.
Over is 6-1-1 in Red Sox last 8 games following an off day.

Yankees Trends:

Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 9-0 in Yankees last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Over is 8-1 in Yankees last 9 overall.

FREE MLB Prediction New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Over/Under (8.5)

Historical trends for this game show a strong tendency towards going over the total in tonight’s contest. That being said, postseason matchups tend to play out quite differently than regular season contests with pitching and defense playing a much more pivotal role in the late innings of ballgames. While the Red Sox bats are more than capable of catching up with his triple digit fastball, Severino has found a lot of success this year with his secondary stuff. Severino features a brutal power slider that is almost unhittable when he paints it for strikes as well as a killer changeup to induce weak contact. I believe this combination of pitches will use the Red Sox hitters aggressiveness against them and it will be tough for Boston to scratch out much offense in the early innings. This unfavorable matchup, combined with Eiovaldi’s surprise career year, makes me want to buck all the game trends and pick the UNDER in tonight’s ballgame.

The Pick: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees UNDER 8.5




Aryeh Wiznitzer
Aryeh Wiznitzer
Aryeh Wiznitzer has been banging out consistent winners against the spread since high school. He makes his home in sunny San Marcos, Texas.