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MLB Players Over/Under Home Run Totals Parlays, Predictions and Odds

MLB Players Over/Under Home Run Totals Prediction and Odds

There’s nothing like watching your favorite player or watching players on your favorite team launch massive home runs. Home runs get the crowd pumped and they lift the energy in the ball parks. It’s one of the biggest reasons why fans pay such big money for seats, they want to see home runs and they want to see them in bunches. As fun as watching home runs is, it’s even more fun when you win money for predicting certain players who will hit a certain amount of them. I want to give you 12 different players and predictions to place your money on and be confident in. These Cover The Spread predictions will be based on the assumption that the players will remain under a clean bill of health, unless they have a laundry list of previous injuries that need to be noted.

Aaron Judge (Yankees) 

Over 39.5 +105

Under 39.5 -135

2018 Home Run Total: 27

 

I have discussed Judge in previous articles, and it is clear that I am on the positive side when it comes to predicting his 2019 season. There just aren’t many players in baseball, if any, that strike the ball with more pure authority than this man. He has led the league in both hard-contact rate, as well as average exit velocity the past two seasons. Asking Judge to mash 52 bombs like he did in 2017 is a tall task, but to only hit 40 and cover the over seems like easy money here. I’m taking this over to the bank.

 

Pick: OVER 39.5 +105

J.D Martinez (Red Sox)

Over 39.5 +105

Under 39.5 -135

2018 Home Run Total: 43

 

Talk about a great grab for the Boston Red Sox, who inked Martinez to a 5-year deal before the 2018 season. At 31, Martinez is still producing outrageous numbers and has a unique skill set that is amongst the best of any slugger in the game. He makes hard contact around 50 percent of the time he pushes the ball into play. He’s placed in the top of the order in one of baseball’s most dominant lineups. A triple-crown threat is in play for this hitter and he should have no problem making the over here.

 

Pick: OVER 39.5 +105

 

Mike Trout (Angels)

Over 38.5 (-115)

Under 38.5 (-115)

2018 Home Run Total: 39

 

Mike Trout is hands down the best baseball player of this generation and quite possibly ever (64.3 WAR). His trophy shelf isn’t as loaded as you would imagine, but he gets the job done when he’s in the lineup. The only issue with Trout when it comes to this stat, is will he play enough games to be able to cover the over? He’s made a few trips to the DL the past two seasons and that should be noted. However, he only needed 140 games to hit 39 home runs last year. I could see why you might be a little leery to take the over, but don’t second guess the best player in the league.

 

Pick: OVER 38.5 (-115)

 

 

Joey Gallo (Rangers)

Over 37.5 (-125)

Under 37.5 (-105)

2018 Home Run Total: 40

 

I swear this guy either hits a home run or strikes out. He’s definitely an interesting player to watch, but he’s been consistent in the home run department for a few years now. In his first two full seasons as a starter, he’s hit 40 dingers in 2017 and 41 in 2018. Last season he was second in all of baseball in home run rate (just under 7 percent per plate appearance), second in fly ball rate (37 percent) and first in average exit velocity (99.8 MPH). He’s going to tank the Rangers average in batting, but he won’t tank your over bet.

 

Pick: OVER 37.5 (-125)

 

 

Nelson Cruz (Twins)

 Over 36.5 (+100)

Under 36.5 (-130)

2018 Home Run Total: 37

 

Nelson Cruz found a new home this offseason in chilly Minnesota, after spending the last four years in Seattle. Cruz is aging and he’ll exclusively hit in the DH spot, but he’ll look to keep piling on the home runs in a ballpark that’s more favorable for his right-handed hitting. He’s certainly aged well, pacing the league with 163 total home runs over the past four seasons, but look for good ole father time to finally catch up with Cruz a little bit. I think he falls a couple short of his 2018 total, therefore, I’m taking the under.

 

Pick: UNDER 36.5 (-130)

 

Bryce Harper (Phillies)

Over 35.5 (-130)

Under 35.5 (+100) 

2018 Home Run Total: 34

 

Bryce Harper in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform? That will be something to see and certainly will sell more tickets for the Phillies this year. Harper is smack in his prime sitting at 26 years old and has been a promising young phenom ever since he stepped into the batter’s box his very first time. He’s definitely a polarizing player and has a high statistical ceiling with a low floor, but he has been limited with injuries over his career. He’s averaged just over 130 games per season in his six-year career, which is the reason why his home run totals are a little sporadic. I think he hits just as many over the fence as he did last season, which means he’s sitting at the under.

 

Pick: UNDER 35.5 (+100)

 

Trevor Story (Rockies) 

Over 31.5 (-125)

Under 31.5 (-105)

2018 Home Run Total: 37

 

Trevor Story had a breakout year for the Colorado Rockies last year, improving his home run total by 13 (37 Home Runs) from 2017 (24 Home Runs). Everything he improved on was legitimate and assuming that he keeps his contact-rate up, he will come into 2019 with a high ceiling. I really like the over here, I think it’s a no-brainer assuming he stays healthy.

Pick: OVER 31.5 (-125)

 

Christian Yelich (Brewers)

Over 29.5 (+115)

Under 29.5 (-145)

2018 Home Run Total: 36

 

MVP! MVP! MVP! Okay, I’ll settle down on the MVP chants for now, but this kid can flat out play. I don’t think it’s easy to bet on Yelich to repeat the type of year he had last year, but I’m not going to underestimate him in a hitter’s friendly ballpark (Miller Park). I don’t quite think he will hit 36 but he shouldn’t be too far off, I’m taking the over without question.

 

Pick: OVER 29.5 (+115)

 

Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals)

Over 29.5 (-125)

Under 29.5 (-105)

2018 Home Run Total: 33

 

Goldy could not have gotten off to a worse start than he did in the 2018 season. Who knows what was going on with him, but he rebounded in the second half and finished with very strong numbers. Now in St. Louis, Goldy could take some time to adjust to his new ballpark, but it shouldn’t hurt his home run total. He’s hit the 30 plus home run mark in the last four of five seasons, so needless to say he’s pretty darn consistent.

 

Pick: OVER 29.5 (-125)

 

Kris Bryant (Cubs)

Over 28.5 (-115)

Under 28.5 (-115)

2018 Home Run Total: 13

 

A bad shoulder injury ruined Bryant’s 2018 campaign, but he’s due to bounce back for his Cubs squad. Should he remain healthy in 2019, he could land somewhere near his career high in the home run department (39). Bryant is an MVP type talent when he’s out on the diamond. This is a promising over pick.

 

Pick: OVER 28.5 (-115)

 

 

Matt Carpenter (Cardinals)

Over 26.5 (-115)

Under 26.5 (-115)

2018 Home Run Total: 36

 

Matt Carpenter got off to a slow start last season due to some shoulder issues. He quickly shook those issues off and hit 32 home runs in a 112-game stretch, accumulating a total of 36 for a career-high. He has one of the most polished plate approaches in the game, but 2018 was the only year he ever hit more than 28 home runs. Although it looks like the trend for Carpenter should be on the over, I’m going to take the under.

 

Pick: UNDER 26.5 (-115)

 

Trey Mancini (Orioles)

Over 24.5 (-105)

Under 24.5 (-125)

2018 Home Run Total: 24

 

Trey Mancini is one of the lone good players left on the Orioles ball club. A few years ago, we would be talking about how many 40 plus home run seasons Chris Davis will have, but we all know how that story goes. Side not aside, Mancini has hit 24 home runs for two straight years. As a right-handed hitter, he handles right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching, which is very interesting and against the normal trend. Mancini is still developing, but I think he hits the same number of homers this season, putting him just below the under.

 

Pick: UNDER 24.5 (-125)

Kole Amans
Kole Amans
Kole is an avid sports fan that is always looking for a good game. He is looking to help you find good deals on the betting front. He is here to help you find a perfect game that you feel comfortable with. Kole utilizes his background in Sports Management to explore extraordinary experiences within the sports business industry.
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