MLB Playoff Tips
Pitching Wins Championships
This season we have seen some peculiar ways of managing a pitching rotation. We have seen starters getting pulled earlier and earlier, especially in the playoffs. The Rays have led the way of “starter by committee” where they start a relief pitcher for one or two innings and then move onto four to five more relievers. Oakland showed that, in crunch time, you need a stud on the mound and the relievers aren’t going to carry your team. The Yankees 3-1 ALDS loss to the Red Sox could and should be blamed on their pitching. You need your top of the rotation to deliver or winning a playoff series seems unlikely. The teams left are the best of the best and bad pitching isn’t going to cut it.
The point I am trying to make is; roll with the pitchers each game. Yes, home versus away plays a large role, but if you can get good value with pitchers like Verlander, Cole, Sale or Kershaw, place the bet. Kershaw is known for getting hit hard in the playoffs, but his first start this year was phenomenal against the Braves. Maybe his time off from injury during the regular season has allowed him to save some energy for October. These four teams left are the ones who should be here. These teams are going to score runs, but if you see a lopsided pitching matchup, jump on the ace with the better bullpen and cash in.
Ride the American League
The Red Sox and Astros are the two best teams in baseball and are going to put on a spectacular ALCS. My tip to you is stick with the American League with your futures bets. If you like the Astros over the Red Sox or vice versa, you should put in your world series bet now, if you haven’t already. There are opportunities to get these teams above +200 to win the championship and now is the time to take it. With each game that pases, the odds will only get worse value-wise. The Astros and Red Sox simply have better rosters than the Dodgers and Brewers.
-1.5 runs Value
My third and final tip for the rest of the MLB playoffs is find the value. One of my favorite ways to pick baseball and find value is to take the 1.5 run lines. These alternate run lines allow you to maximize your pick when you are extremely confident about it. Here is a stat from last year’s playoffs: out of 38 playoff games in 2017 only 10 games were won by one run. If you pick half your games right, you will make more money with the 1.5 run line, even if you lose one or two because your pick wins by one run. I am not saying you must use this run line every time, but when you are overly confident on your pick, roll the dice with the 1.5 run line for some extra value. It is also a good idea in these series to use the +1.5-run line for underdogs you want to pick, but aren’t too confident about them because you have that extra small percentage of games that lose by 1 at your disposal.
If you take these three tips to heart when you make picks you should come away smiling from these playoffs.
|Team||Current Odds||Preseason Odds|
|Boston Red Sox||+215||+1200|
MLB Series Prices as of October 11, 2018
Dodgers vs Brewers – NLCS (LAD won Season Series 5-2)
Series opens Friday, October 12
Astros vs Red Sox – ALCS (HOU won Season Series 4-3)
Series opens Saturday, October 13
Red Sox +115