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Predicting MLB Rookie of the Year Candidates

MLB Rookie of the Year 2019

Earlier on in March, Las Vegas SuperBook released the MLB Rookie of the Year odds. This is somewhat shocking, as these odds are not typically released before the season starts, unlike the MVP or Cy Young award odds. Obviously, this year sparks more curiosity as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., one of the highest touted prospects in recent memory, is set to start for the Blue Jays. He will not have a ton of help in the lineup, more on this later. Rookie of the Year odds is always very hard to predict, especially with how ambiguous the MLB is with who is considered a rookie or not. With that being said, I am going to highlight some of the top-rated rookies this season, and pick which is worth the value

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

As mentioned above, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the highest touted prospects in the last decade. Since being selected as an international prospect at the age of 16, Guerrero Jr. has done nothing but impress scouts and fans. Last season across A, AA, and AAA ball, Guerrero Jr.’s batting numbers were staggering. In 95 games, he batted .381, hit 20 home runs, knocked in 79 RBI, and amassed an OPS of 1.073.

Right now, the downside of Guerrero Jr. is not his overall skill, but his conditioning. He came into camp looking a bit overweight, which is premature seeing as he is 20 years old. But, he did sustain an oblique injury which will sideline him for a couple of weeks. If we are picking nits, this is the only thing I can find on this amazing prospect.

Justus Sheffield

The former Gatorade Player of the Year, Justus Sheffield was the prime trading piece that the Yankees dealt for James Paxton. Sheffield now lives in Seattle and is projected to be the sixth starter for the Mariners. The 22-year-old lefty appeared in 2.2 innings for the Yankees last year, so he maintains his rookie status.

Sheffield pitched beautifully in the minors last season. Over 116 innings, Sheffield compiled a 2.48 ERA, struck out 123 batters, and recorded a WHIP of 1.138. These amazing stats are going to be reciprocated in the majors in the next couple of seasons. Sheffield throws 98 mph and mixes in his off-speed pitches very well. If he can get the innings he needs, +1500 looks like great odds for Sheffield.

Danny Jansen

This is the value pick that could pay huge dividends. Danny Jansen is the less talked about rookie on the Blue Jays but could end up playing a big part of the teams future. Am I saying that Toronto is going to win the division? Definitely not. But, Jansen could put together a great season to make the race with Guerrero Jr. more fun.

The Blue Jays moved on from Russell Martin, giving Jansen the lion share of the at-bats in Toronto. He played 31 games last season, which makes almost no sense how he can still be considered a rookie. Nonetheless, Jansen projects to be one of the best hitting catchers in the game. If he can produce at the plate, and control the pitching staff, +2500 seems very tempting.

 Pick: Danny Jansen +2500

American League Rookie of the Year Odds

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR +125 -125
Eloy Jimenez CHW +250 +300
Forrest Whitley HOU +1200 +1200
Justus Sheffield SEA +1500 +1500
Yusei Kikuchi SEA +700 +1500
Josh James HOU +1500 +1500
Brent Honeywell TB +1500 +1500
Jesus Luzardo OAK +2500 +2000
Bo Bichette TOR +3000 +3000
Kyle Tucker HOU +3000 +3000
Jonathan Loaisiga NYY +8000 +6000
Danny Jansen TOR +2500 +8000
Dane Dunning CHW N/A +8000
Dylan Cease CHW +8000 +8000
Sean Murphy OAK +10000 +10000
Yusniel Diaz BAL +5000 +10000
Justin Dunn SEA +10000 +10000
Ryan Mountcastle BAL +10000 +10000
Triston McKenzie CLE +20000 +10000
Griffin Canning LAA +20000 N/A
Yordan Alvarez HOU +20000 N/A
Sam Friedman
Sam is a sports writer that utilizes a sense of humor when offering opinions. He offers unique insights into various sports, and knows all of the ins and outs of the NFL, NBA and College Sports. He enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying statistics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level.
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