San Francisco Giants (69-73) at Los Angeles Dodgers (92-52)
MLB: Sunday, September 8th, 2019 at 4:10 pm ET (Dodger Stadium)
Line and Odds: Los Angeles Dodgers -230/San Francisco Giants +205 Over/Under: 9
Free ESPN MLB Picks Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants rank 26th in scoring, putting up 4.33 runs per game. San Francisco is also 26th in the MLB with 13.77 total bases per game. The Giants have an on base plus slugging percentage of .707, ranking 28th in OPS. They are one of the 5 worst offenses in the Majors in terms of hitting for power, hitting for average, and getting on base. They rank 26th in isolated power (.160) and batting average (.241). Their batters rank 27th with a slugging percentage of .401. Giants’ batters hit home runs on 2.9% of their plate appearances which ranks them 25th in home run percentage. They get extra base hits on 8.3% of their plate appearances, ranking 22nd in extra base hit percentage. They rank 25th in batting average on balls in play, with a BABIP of .289. San Francisco draws walks on 7.8% of their plate appearances, ranking 22nd in walk percentage. With such low stats across the board, it makes sense that they rank 27th in on base percentage (.305).
San Francisco allows 4.80 runs per game, which ranks them 15th in runs allowed. The Giants allow 14.99 total bases per game, which makes San Francisco 18th in total bases allowed. Their opponents’ on base plus slugging percentage of .756 ranks 15th in the MLB. They rank 16th in opponents’ slugging percentage and 13th in opponents’ on base percentage. San Francisco’s pitching staff has a 1.314 WHIP, which ranks 13th in the Majors. The Giants have strong fielders, ranking 8th in BABIP. The Giants will send out Dereck Rodriguez as today’s starting pitcher. Rodriguez has regressed significantly from his 2018 level. The right-hander had a 2.81 ERA last season, but his 2019 ERA has reached 5.15. He has made 23 pitching appearances this season, 14 as a starter and 9 as a reliever. Rodriguez has pitched 87 and 1/3 innings and compiled a record of 5-8 in 2019. His WHIP has jumped up to 1.397 (from 1.132 last season) and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is down to 1.93 (from 2.47 last season). Rodriguez allows 9.5 hits, 1.6 home runs, and 6.08 runs per 9 innings. They will likely need a 2018 type of performance from Rodriguez if they hope to complete the sweep over the Dodgers.
The Dodgers’ offense scores 5.47 runs per game. L.A. ranks 5th in both runs per game and total bases per game. Los Angeles’ batting lineup hits for 16.14 total bases per outing. The Dodgers also rank 5th in on base plus slugging percentage (.816) and slugging percentage (.476). Los Angeles is good at hitting for average, but great at hitting for power. Their battling lineup ranks 9th in batting average, hitting .259 at the plate this season. They rank 3rd in both isolated power and home run %. The Dodgers have an isolated power of .219 and a home run rate of 4.5%. 42.7% of their hits go for extra bases, the highest rate in all of baseball. 9.6% of their plate appearances result in extra bases, a number that ranks 5th-best in the Majors. L.A. ranks in the top 10 in on base percentage (4th), offensive strikeout percentage (9th), and walk percentage (2nd). It is very hard to find an offensive statistic that looks bad for the Dodgers.
Los Angeles allows 3.88 runs per game, ranking 1st in the MLB in runs allowed. They also rank 1st in total bases allowed, giving up 12.92 total bases per outing. Their opponents’ OPS of .672 is the best mark in the Major Leagues. The Dodgers excel at prevent teams from getting on base, ranking 1st in opponents’ on base percentage (.284). L.A. pitchers walk batters on just 6.5% of their opponents’ plate appearances, ranking them 1st in walk percentage. The Dodgers’ pitching staff also ranks #1 with a WHIP of 1.115. Los Angeles ranks 5th in opponents’ isolated power (.160), 6th in opponents’ home run rate (3.2%), and 5th in opponents’ extra base hit percentage (7.9%). They rank 2nd in opponents’ batting average (.227) and opponents’ BABIP (.277). Julio Urias gets the start for today’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Urias has been used mostly as a reliever this season, but he has made a few starts on the year. He has made 28 pitching appearances this season, 7 as a starter and 21 as a reliever. Urias has a 4-3 record and a 2.55 ERA over the course of 70 and 2/3 innings pitched, this season. He has a WHIP of 1.075 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.04. Julio Arias allows 6.8 hits, 0.9 home runs, and 3.31 runs per 9 innings.
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
San Francisco is 6-12 SU in their last 18 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of San Francisco’s last 18 games played in September.
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Dodgers’ last 5 games against San Francisco.
LA Dodgers are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games at home.
ESPN MLB Scores San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
I’m taking the San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-107) on the runline. Over the past couple of years, the Dodgers have been a much better team than the Giants. However, San Francisco has fared well in their direct head-to-head matchup. San Francisco is 16-18 against the Dodgers in the last 2 years. That may not sound like much, but the average moneyline for SF in those games was San Francisco +176. The Giants have produced a return of investment of +26.6% in their last 34 matchups. San Francisco is 22-12 vs. the Dodgers against the runline, producing an ROI of +20.7%. Their history over the last 2 seasons has convinced me that the Giants simply match up well with the Dodgers. The value in this matchup lies with the Giants.