Toronto Blue Jays (53-79) at Seattle Mariners (55-75)
MLB: Sunday, August 25th, 2019 at 4:10 pm ET (T-Mobile Park)
Line and Odds: Seattle Mariners -150/Toronto Blue Jays +133 Over/Under: 9.5
Free ESPN MLB Picks Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays score 4.50 runs per game, ranking 22nd in run production. Toronto ranks 23rd with an on base plus slugging percentage of .730. Despite a low scoring output, the Blue Jays’ power numbers are pretty strong. Their isolated power of .191 ranks 11th-best in Major League Baseball. Toronto hits home runs on 4.1% of their plate appearances, ranking 8th in home run percentage. They rank 13th in extra base hit percentage, getting extra base hits on 8.8% of their plate appearances. 41.0% of the hits they manage to get go for extra bases, the 4th-highest % in the Majors. The problem for Toronto is that they simply don’t get that many hits. They rank 30th out of 30 teams in batting average and 29th in batting average on balls in play. The Blue Jays have a batting average of .237 and a BABIP of just .277. Toronto’s batting lineup also has a problem with strikeouts. They rank 25th in strikeout percentage, getting struck out in 24.4% of their plate appearances. The Blue Jays’ rank 28th with an on base percentage of .303, a mark that has really damaged their offensive statistical rankings.
The Blue Jays give up 5.02 runs per game, ranking 20th in runs allowed. Toronto ranks 21st with an opponents’ on base plus slugging percentage of .791. They rank in the bottom half of the MLB in most pitching or defensive statistical categories. Toronto has a particularly difficult time keeping opponents off base. Their opponents’ on base percentage of .339 ranks 25th in the Majors. Similarly, their pitchers rank 26th with a collective WHIP of 1.437. Their pitchers draw too many walks and not enough strikeouts. Blue Jays’ pitchers strike out opponents on 20.9% of their opponents’ plate appearances, ranking 25th in strikeout percentage. They rank 29th in walk percentage, allowing walks on 9.7% of their opponents’ plate appearances. The pitching staff ranks 30th with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.15. Toronto will send Clay Buchholz to the mound for his first start since May 5th. Buchholz has been sidelined for the last 3 and a half months with an upper back strain. Before getting injured, Buchholz only made 5 starts. He had a 6.57 ERA, 1.541 WHIP, and 2.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24 and 2/3 innings pitched. This is a stark contrast to his elite 2018 performance with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Last year, Buchholz had a 2.07 ERA and 1.037 WHIP with Arizona. It’ll be interesting to see what Buchholz we get to see as this season comes to a close.
The Seattle Mariners score 4.93 runs per game, ranking 13th in runs scored. Seattle also ranks 13th with an on base plus slugging percentage of .765. The Mariners’ power numbers have been stellar this season. They hit home runs on 4.1% of their plate appearances, ranking 5th in home run percentage. Seattle’s isolated power of .200 ranks 6th-best in the Major Leagues. They get extra base hits on 9.0% of their plate appearances, ranking 9th in extra base hit percentage. 41.5% of their hits go for extra bases, the 3rd-highest rate in all of baseball. Unfortunately for Seattle, they have a hard time getting those hits. Seattle ranks 24th in the MLB with a batting average of .244. They rank 23nd with a batting average on balls in play of .292. These numbers bring their slugging percentage to .444, which ranks 12th in the MLB. The Mariners have a .321 on base percentage, which ranks them 18th in OBP. Their batters rank 6th in walk percentage (9.5%), but just 26th in strikeout percentage (25.4%).
Seattle ranks 28th in runs allowed per game, giving up 5.66 runs per outing. They rank 27th in opponents’ on base plus slugging percentage with an opponents’ OPS of .807. Their opponents’ on base percentage of .329 ranks 18th in the Majors. The strength of their pitching is the ability to limit walks. They walk batters on just 7.8% of their plate appearances, ranking 7th in opponents’ walk percentage. However, they only strike out batters on 19.7% of their opponents’ plate appearances (29th in the MLB). Mariners’ pitchers rank 22nd with a WHIP of 1.401. Seattle ranks 28th with an opponents’ slugging percentage of .478. They rank 29th in opponents’ isolated power (.210), opponents’ home run percentage (4.4%), and opponents’ extra base hit percentage (10.0%). Marco Gonzales gets the call as today’s starter for the Seattle Mariners. Gonzales leads the team with 27 starts and 157 innings pitched. The 27 year-old left-hander has a 4.30 ERA, 1.363 WHIP, and 3.03 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He allows 10.0 hits, 1.0 home runs, and 5.10 runs per 9 innings. His 2019 numbers track pretty closely to his career statistical averages.
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
Toronto is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.
Toronto is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against Seattle.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle’s last 5 games.
Seattle is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
Seattle is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home.
ESPN MLB Scores Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
I’m taking the Toronto Blue Jays at +135 in today’s contest. I figured Seattle would be a small favorite today, but I didn’t expect a -150/+135 line. The Blue Jays and Mariners are teams of similar strength. If anything, I’d say Toronto is the better team overall. While it’s true that Toronto has trouble putting up runs, Seattle has an even harder time when it comes to preventing them. Gonzales’ relatively high WHIP leads me to believe that the Blue Jays will find ways to get on base. Over the course of the year, Toronto has been able to turn singles into doubles when given the chance. If Gonzales gives up hits, Toronto will make him pay. On the flip side, I think we’re going to see Buchholz put on a good performance. He’s finally healthy, so he will show a slight resemblance to to the Buchholz of 2018. Take Toronto in this matchup.