Detroit Pistons (19-41) at Phoenix Suns (24-35)
NBA: Friday, February 28th, 2020 at 9:00 pm ET (Talking Stick Resort Arena)
Line and Odds: Phoenix Suns -9 Over/Under: 218.5
Free ESPN NBA Picks Phoenix Suns vs. Detroit Pistons
Detroit ranks 23rd in net rating, having been outscored by 3.1 points per 100 possessions. The Detroit Pistons are 21st in offensive rating, averaging 109.1 points per 100 possessions. They are an average offensive unit when it comes to shooting the ball. Detroit ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage, shooting for an eFG% of 52.9%. They do actually shoot the ball accurately from 3-point range. They hit 36.7% of their 3 point shots, which ranks them 8th in 3-point shooting percentage. However, they hit just 51.6% of their 2 point shot attempts. The Pistons rank 21st in 2-point shooting percentage, which substantially drags down their effective field goal percentage numbers. Detroit also struggles mightily when it comes to taking care of the basketball. They turn the ball over on 14.0% of their offensive plays, ranking 29th in offensive turnover percentage.
The Pistons rank 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating, allowing 112.2 points per 100 possessions. Detroit ranks 21st in effective field goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot for an eFG% 53.9%. The Pistons are 20th in 3-point shooting defense, allowing teams to shoot 36.2% from beyond the arc. They have been even worse defending the 2-point shot than the 3-point shot. Detroit ranks 24th in 2-point percentage defense, allowing teams to shoot 53.6% from 2-point range. They’ve also had a tough time preventing 2nd chance opportunities. The Pistons are 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage, grabbing 76.1% of the defensive rebounds available to them. For all of Detroit’s flaws, they do manage to defend without fouling their opponents. They rank 6th in free throw attempts given up per 100 possessions. Also, Detroit’s defense ranks 13th in turnover percentage. The Pistons force takeaways on 12.6% of their opponents’ offensive plays, so sloppy ball-handling will get punished against this defense.
Phoenix ranks 15th in net rating, getting outscored by 1.0 point per 100 possessions. The Suns are 17th in terms of offensive rating, scoring 110.0 points per 100 possessions. Much of Phoenix’s scoring production comes from the free throw line. They rank 6th in free throw attempt rate, attempting .273 free throws for every field goal attempt. The Suns rank #1 in the NBA in free throw shooting percentage, hitting 82.3% of their free throws. This helps mitigate some of the problems they have shooting from the field. They rank 21st in effective field goal percentage, shooting for an eFG% of 52.4%. Their eFG% numbers are poor because of their inability to hit 3-point shots. Phoenix only makes 34.6% of their 3-point attempts, ranking 23rd in 3-point shooting percentage. The Suns rank 18th in both offensive rebound percentage and offensive turnover percentage.
The Phoenix Suns are 16th in defensive rating, giving up 111.0 points per 100 possessions. They allow teams to shoot for an effective field percentage of 54.0%, which ranks them 22nd in eFG% defense. The Suns defense ranks 23rd in opponents’ 2-point shooting percentage and 21st in opponents’ 3-point shooting percentage. Phoenix also fouls at a high rate, ranking 21st in free throw attempts allowed per 100 possessions. However, they excel at rebounding on the defensive end and forcing turnovers. They rank 3rd in defensive turnover percentage, taking the ball away on 14.3% of their opponents’ offensive plays. Phoenix ranks 8th with a defensive rebound percentage of 78.3%. Because of these two strengths, the Suns defense rank 2nd in field goal attempts allowed per 100 possessions.
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
Detroit is 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games.
Detroit is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against Phoenix.
Detroit is 0-7 SU in their last 7 games on the road.
Phoenix is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix’s last 6 games.
Phoenix is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
Phoenix is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit.
ESPN NBA Scores Detroit Pistons vs. Phoenix Suns
I’m taking the Detroit Pistons +9 in this match-up. Even factoring in the roster upheaval the Pistons have undergone, I think the 9-point spread is too much here. The Suns are slightly better on both ends of the floor, but the gaps aren’t particularly wide. Detroit will be able to exploit some of Phoenix’s weaknesses. For example, I expect the Pistons to be able to hit 3-point shots on Phoenix’s perimeter defense. Detroit is very good at shooting the 3, while Phoenix has trouble defending it. I also think the Pistons will be able to slow Phoenix’s scoring output because of their defensive fundamentals. The Pistons’ roster is limited, but they have one of the NBA’s best defensive coaches in Dwane Casey. Phoenix gets an inordinate amount of points from the free throw line, but the Pistons do a great job of defending without fouling. When Phoenix can’t get easy points at the line, they have a hard time scoring Detroit may not win, but I like them to keep it within 9.