Golden State Warriors (3-13) at Utah Jazz (9-5)
NBA: Friday, November 22nd, 2019 at 9:00 pm ET (Vivint Smart Home Arena)
Line and Odds: Utah Jazz -16 Over/Under: 208
Free ESPN NBA Picks Utah Jazz vs. Golden State Warriors
Any casual basketball observer could tell you that these Golden State Warriors are a shell of their former selves. This team looks completely different than the one who made the NBA Finals just last year. Kevin Durant left for Brooklyn in the offseason, Shaun Livingston retired, and Andre Iguodala was traded away. Klay Thompson got injured in the Finals and no one really knows when he might be coming back. Steph Curry got hurt early in the year, and he’s going to be out for the foreseeable future. Draymond Green has been in-and-out of the lineup because of a heel injury. Newly-acquired D’Angelo Russell has been missing games because of a thumb injury. These injuries and departures have resulted in a lot of youth getting significant playing time and more losses than Golden State is used to.
The Warriors currently have a record in 3-13, the worst-mark in the entire NBA. They are still licking their wounds from the loss that came at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks. Golden State went to Dallas and lost 142-94. Eric Paschall led the team in scoring with 22 points and Ky Bowman chipped in another 16. However, the Warriors allowed Luka Doncic to go for 35 points, 11 assists, and 10 rebounds. Golden State was down 44-16 at the end of the first quarter and 74-38 at the end of the 1st half. These kinds of poor defensive showings are the new normal for Golden State.
Golden State ranks 30th out of 30 teams in net rating, getting outscored by an average of 10.5 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors rank 22nd in offensive rating, scoring 105.5 points per 100 possessions. They shoot for an effective field goal percentage of 48.5%, ranking 29th in eFG%. However, there are bright spots for the Warriors’ offense. They rank 9th in turnover percentage, and 2nd in free throws made per 100 possessions. Golden State is 29th in defensive rating, allowing 116.0 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors rank 30th in effective field goal defense, allowing teams to shoot for an eFG% of 55.9%. They rank 22nd in defensive turnover percentage and defensive rebound percentage.
There was an expectation, coming into the season, that the Utah Jazz would be one of the best teams in the Western Conference. The oddsmakers’ over/under win total was set at 53.5 wins, the 3rd-highest mark in the West (behind the Rockets and the Clippers). Their preseason NBA Championship odds were set at +1300, the 5th-best odds of any team in the West. Utah has one of the strongest starting lineups in the NBA with Mike Conley, Jr., Donovan Mitchell, Royce O’Neale, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Rudy Gobert. I’d say that the Jazz are living up to expectation, but they aren’t exceeding it.
Utah is currently 9-5, good for the 5th-best record in the Western Conference. The Jazz are 1.5 games behind the 10-3 Denver Nuggets in the Northwest Division. Donovan Mitchell has averaged 24.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. Bojan Bogdanovic has contributed 20.5 points per game. Rudy Gobert has averaged 13.7 points and 13.7 rebounds per game. Gobert has also, once again, been the anchor of the stingy Jazz defense. He ranks 1st in individual defensive rating and defensive win shares. Utah’s defense was the driving force in their most recent victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves. They held the Timberwolves to 39.3% from the field and 31.1% from three-point range. Bogdanovic scored 30 and Mitchell scored 26, but it was the Jazz defense that led the way.
The Utah Jazz rank 12th in the NBA in net rating, outscoring opponents by 3.8 points per 100 possessions. Utah ranks 24th in offensive rating, scoring 104.4 points per 100 possessions. They rank 20th in effective field goal percentage, shooting for an eFG% of 51.1%. Utah ranks 21st in turnover percentage and 29th in offensive rebound percentage. They generate a high percentage of their points through the free throw line. Utah ranks 3rd in free throws made per 100 possessions and 1st in free throw rate. The Jazz rank 2nd in defensive rating, allowing 100.6 points per 100 possessions. They rank 2nd in effective field goal defense, forcing teams to shoot for an eFG% of 48.0%. Utah grabs 80.2% of the defensive rebounds available to them. ranking 5th in defensive rebound percentage. However, they rank just 21st in defensive turnover percentage.
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State’s last 5 games.
Golden State is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against Utah.
Golden State is 2-11 SU in their last 13 games this season.
Utah is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Utah’s last 17 games.
Utah is 15-2 SU in their last 17 games at home.
ESPN NBA Scores Golden State Warriors vs. Utah Jazz
I’m taking the Golden State Warriors +16 in this matchup. The market is undervaluing the Warriors in this spot because of what we just saw in their last game. The Golden State defense is terrible, but not as terrible as they showed against Dallas in their most recent loss. Even a team that lacks talent has pride. No one wants to lose by 48 and give up 142 points. I expect to see the Warriors give their best effort in this contest. I also don’t believe the Jazz have the kind of weapons that can really take advantage of the Warriors like the Mavericks could. Offensively, Utah has trouble shooting from the field. The Jazz rely heavily on getting points at the free throw line, but the Warriors are 10th in free throw attempts allowed per 100 possessions. Also, the Warriors’ offense isn’t quite as bad as perceived. They can’t shoot, but they rebound well, hit their free throws, and take care of the basketball. I expect the Jazz to win, but they won’t win by 17. Take Golden State and the points.