Indiana Pacers (5-4) at Orlando Magic (3-6)
NBA: Sunday, November 10th, 2019 at 6:00 pm ET (Amway Center)
Line and Odds: Orlando Magic -3.5 Over/Under: 204
Free ESPN NBA Picks Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers
Despite some of the injuries the Indiana Pacers are dealing with, they have been finding ways to win their games. Indiana currently has a 5-4 record, which is an impressive accomplishment considering the way they started out the season. The Pacers first 3 games saw them go 0-3, suffering losses at home to the Detroit Pistons, on the road against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and on the road against the Detroit Pistons. Since then, the Pacers have won 5 of their last 6 games to secure a winning record through the first 9 games of the season. Indiana has earned wins over the Nets, Bulls, and Wizards in that 6 game stretch. They’ve also managed to avenge their 3 losses by beating the Cavaliers 102-95 and the Pistons 112-106. The only loss Indiana has suffered in the last 6 games was a close 122-120 road loss to the Charlotte Hornets.
The Indiana Pacers are 12th in the NBA in terms of net rating, outscoring opponents by +3.0 points per 100 possessions. They are a well-balanced team that places slightly above-average, both offensively and defensively. Indiana ranks 14th in offensive rating, scoring 108.2 points per 100 possessions. In a league that emphasizes free throw attempts and 3 point shots, Indiana ranks 2nd in 2-point shot attempts per game. They rank 30th in 3-point attempts per game and 28th in free throw attempts per game. Indiana ranks 12th in defensive rating, allowing 105.2 points per 100 possessions. The Pacers rank 14th in effective field goal defense (51.2%) and 7th in defensive turnover percentage (15.3%). Coach Nate McMillan has his team playing at a slow tempo. They rank 25th in pace, averaging 99.9 possessions per 48 minutes.
Not only has this Pacers team gone through a high amount of injuries during the season, but they entered the season without their best player. Victor Oladipo hasn’t been able to play because of a ruptured right quadriceps tendon. He is currently participating in non-contact practice drills, but there’s currently no timetable on his return. 5 players on the Pacers roster average 14 or more points per game this season, but two of them will not play against Orlando. Jeremy Lamb and Myles Turner are both out with ankle injuries. Indiana will continue to rely on Domantas Sabonis, T.J. Warren, and first-year Pacer Malcolm Brogdon for production, with guys like Jakarr Simpson, and Aaron Holiday filling in the gaps.
The Orlando Magic have been a significantly stronger team at home than they have been on the road. Away from home, the Magic have failed to find a single win in 4 tries. They’ve lost to the Hawks, Raptors, Thunder, and Mavericks in road contests, this season. However, Orlando has a 3-2 record at home. Though they’ve lost to the Nuggets and Bucks in Orlando, they beat the Cavaliers, Knicks, and most-recently, the Memphis Grizzlies. Their 118-86 win over Memphis was their best offensive performance of the season. It gives hope to Magic fans that the league’s worst offense has turned a corner. Each of their Southeast Division competitors have taken losses in their most recent games, so a win over Indiana would help the 3-6 Magic gain ground on their division rivals.
Orlando ranks 17th in the NBA in terms of net rating, getting outscored by -0.5 points per 100 possessions. The Magic’s offense is what keeps this team from being one of the top teams in the league. Orlando ranks 30th out of 30 teams in offensive rating, scoring just 99.9 points per 100 possessions. They are the only team with an offensive rating of less than 100. Defensively, the Magic have emerged as one of the toughest teams to score on. Orlando ranks 3rd in defensive rating, giving up 100.4 points per 100 possessions. Their inefficient offense and stingy defense might explain why Coach Steve Clifford has decided to slow Orlando’s tempo. The Magic ranks 29th in pace, averaging 97.8 possessions per 48 minutes.
The Magic have been healthier as a team than the Indiana Pacers. Every Magic player who averages at least 20 minutes per game has played in all 9 games except Terrence Ross. Ross is listed as questionable in this game with a knee injury. Nikola Vucevic leads the team in scoring and rebounding. Vucevic averages 17.0 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. For a team that has struggled on offense as much as it has, the Magic will need a high volume shooter like Vucevic to be more efficient from the field than his 49.5% effective field goal percentage and 21.9% 3-point percentage. Expect him to approach his career averages of 51.3% eFG% and 32.6 3P% as the year goes on. Orlando’s strong defense has been led by Jonathan Isaac. The 3rd-year forward ranks 1st in block percentage, 1st in defensive box/minus, 3rd in defensive win shares, and 4th in individual defensive rating.
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
Indiana is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Orlando.
Indiana is 15-4 SU in their last 19 games against Orlando.
Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Orlando’s last 14 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Orlando’s last 7 games at home.
Orlando is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games when playing at home against Indiana.
ESPN NBA Scores Indiana Pacers vs. Orlando Magic
I like the Indiana Pacers +3.5 in this matchup. One reason I feel good about taking the Pacers here is the tempo profile of both teams. This is a contest between the 2nd-slowest and 6th-slowest teams in the NBA with respect to pace. I generally like taking the underdog in a game between slow-tempo teams because the number of possessions are limited. Two solid defensive teams in a slow-paced game usually benefits the underdog. Also, the Pacers are the more well-rounded team. They perform fairly well in both offense and defense. Orlando, on the other hand, is a one-sided basketball team. As great as Orlando’s defense is, their offense is the worst in the league. It’s hard for me to bet on a team of Orlando’s makeup when their offense is so poor. The Pacers are 8-1 straight-up and 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 meetings with the Magic in Orlando. I like that trend to continue today. Take Indiana and the points.