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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Atlanta Hawks

Los Angeles Lakers (28-28) at Atlanta Hawks (18-38)

NBA Regular Season: February 12, 2019 @ 7:30 PM EST (State Farm Arena)

Line and Odds: Lakers -5 — Over/Under: 236

Free NBA Pick Atlanta Hawks vs. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers and Hawks are set to face off in what should be an exciting matchup at the State Farm Arena.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are in the midst of a turbulent season that includes a 23 point loss to the 76ers coming on the heels of a win over the Celtics (those were the Lakers’ last two games). Los Angeles has been a middling offensive team that predictably leans heavily on LeBron and concentrates its scoring in the paint (50.2% of the Lakers’ points come from inside the paint, more than any other team in the NBA besides the Pelicans). This Lakers offense does tend to leave points on the board; despite getting to the free throw line at an above average rate, the Lakers rank 22nd in the league in free throws made because of their league worst 68.7% free throw percentage. The Lakers are a solid defensive team that owns the NBA’s 13th best defensive rating but L.A. struggles to defend the paint and tends to allow opposing offenses to run successful fast breaks frequently while failing to induce turnovers at an above average rate.

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta comes into this game on a three game losing streak (including an embarrassing 16 point home loss to the Magic) and will look to turn their momentum around in this matchup. Offensively, the Hawks like to run (Atlanta leads the NBA in pace), shoot threes, and score in the paint (the Hawks own one of the highest “Moreyball ratings” in the league). Problematically though, the Hawks just aren’t very good three point shooters (Atlanta’s 34.6% three point shooting percentage ranks 23rd in the league), leaving them with a bottom 10 offensive rating. The Hawks are also a poor defensive team and own a bottom 5 defensive rating and a bottom 10 defensive rebounding rate while allowing the most fast break points in the league and ranking among the bottom five teams in second chance points allowed. Surprisingly, the Hawks actually rank around league average in opposing points in the paint and 11th in steals per game, but their inability to consistently defend opposing shooters leaves the Hawks with a bottom three opposing field goal percentage and the most opposing points per game (118.5).

Cover the Spread 365 Trends

Los Angeles Lakers

Los Angeles is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

The Lakers are 14-14 ATS on the road this season

Los Angeles is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are 7-17 ATS at home this season

Atlanta is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 10 games when playing Los Angeles

Free NBA Pick Atlanta Hawks vs. Los Angeles Lakers

This game will likely be quick and fast break heavy as it features a pair of top five teams in pace. Los Angeles is on the outside of the West’s playoff picture right now and a loss to the 18-38 Hawks would indicate that the Lakers might be further away from contention than they’d hope. L.A. should be able to beat the Hawks comfortably in this one though as it should take advantage of Atlanta’s porous defense and weak offense.

The Pick: Lakers -5 (-110)

Sam Chinitz
Sam Chinitz
Sam has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he's combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. He loves sports and loves writing about them. Using not just statistics and records, he uses common sense and conventional thinking. The opposite of what most bettors rely on--impulse wagering and following the norm. His articles are well-thought-out and well-researched.
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