Clemson Tigers (15-8) (10-13 ATS) @ Miami Hurricanes (10-13) (9-14 ATS)
NCAA BB: Wednesday, Feburary 13th, 2019 at 7:00 pm ET (Watsco Center, Coral Gables, Florida)
Spread: Clemson -3
The ACC is a little over halfway through its schedule and on the docket for tonight’s game are the Miami Hurricanes, who are 2-9 in the ACC, and the Clemson Tigers, at 5-5 in the conference.
Just like they started the season, the Tiger’s are off on a four game tear. The sweet 12-2 home record has paid dividends to an above par season, but Clemson goes into Coral Gables looking for only its third true win away from Carolina. The blowout win at Georgia Tech two games ago might be the tune up game they needed before they head down to Florida. Their more recent win against then-no.11 Virginia Tech, 69-61, last Saturday could be their biggest win of the year and might potentially do them big favors the rest of the way.
Speaking of their schedule, it’s the 36th toughest nationally and it showed when Duke, Syracuse and Florida State came to face off with the Tigers. All were losses and so the VT win was needed. Clemson, however, just needs to play a bit better especially on offense if they’re going to succeed in the ever-so tough ACC. They’re average almost everywhere during their possessions. They do shoot well as they’re 38th nationally from two-point range and 59th overall in shooting. And their scoring margin over opponents is +6.4, 67th nationally. Clemson’s defense, however, is a testament to that scoring margin. Being 9th in opponents’ assists more than helps matters also. The Clemson Tigers are a veteran team who have four starting seniors while three are graduates. The non-senior, Marcquisse Reed is a stud. He averages and leads the team in four of the five categories and I’ll put an asterisk to the four: 34.30 MPG*, 18.85 PPG*, 5.10 RPG, 3.25 APG*, 2.05 BPG*.
Miami’s looking at their season differently. Salvage is likely the fitting term as the ‘Canes season is all but over. But they’ll hope to slow a recent slide since their ACC schedule began. The win over Notre Dame, 62-47, leveled them up some and the near follow up victory but loss at North Carolina, 85-88, may have boosted morale. Guard Chris Lykes (16.19 PPG, 3.35 APG), scored 27 points and was one off his career high. The U also out rebounded UNC 39-32.
The Tigers, as well, play in the tough ACC and that means they’ve had one of the hardest schedules, 39th nationally. The near upset over UNC is again worth mentioning because of how much they were the underdog by at +16. It’s something of a trend as just two games prior, they were +18 dogs to Virginia and lost by 10. In four of the games before Virginia, they had failed to cover, as dogs, single digit spreads and went down by double digits in each. Still, ND is sub-par and outside of them, Miami has defeated next to no one. And it’s because they’re not out scoring their opponents by much as the margin’s only +2.3. It’s also because their 79th leading in 3PM/game is their best mark. Everywhere else is porous.
Clemson is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Clemson is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Clemson is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Clemson’s last 5 games when playing Miami
Miami is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Miami is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 games at home
Miami is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Clemson
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami’s last 10 games when playing at home against Clemson
Miami has covered well in the last few games and good for them. If this game arrived a few days earlier, then I’d pull for them. But I think the trend of covering is over for the ‘Canes. I think they come back down to earth and Clemson takes the points. However, Miami does play better at home having all their wins via home or neutral victory. So you can’t go wrong with them covering once more. But I’ll argue and say that might be too comforting for the ‘Canes.
Pick: Clemson -3.0