Purdue Boilermakers (17-6) at Maryland Terrapins (18-6)
NCAA Basketball: Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 at 6:30 pm (XFinity Center)
Line and Odds: Purdue Boilermakers -2 Over/Under: 141
Free ESPN NCAA Basketball Picks Maryland Terrapins vs. Purdue Boilermakers
The Purdue Boilermakers have emerged as the hottest team in the Big Ten. They have won 11 of their last 12 games and they are on an 8 game win streak. Purdue has a significant number of quality wins over teams like Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Minnesota. The Boilermakers are ranked 12th in the most recent AP Top 25 Poll and 11th in the Top 25 Coaches Poll. Purdue has an overall record of 17-6 and a 10-2 record in conference play. They are a 1/2 game back of Michigan for first place in the Big Ten. The most recent contest in Purdue’s 8 game win streak was an 81-62 win over Nebraska.
Despite being outmatched by Purdue’s talent, the Cornhuskers were able to give Purdue trouble in the 1st half. Nebraska had a 27-25 lead with 7 minutes left in the 1st half and was only down 33-31 at halftime. Purdue turned on the jets in the 2nd half and outscored Nebraska 48-31 in the final 20 minutes. Purdue shot 50.9% from the field and went 19-21 from the free throw line. The Boilermakers dominated the glass, outrebounding Nebraska 39 to 24. Purdue guard Carsen Edwards scored 27 points in the win. Forward Grady Eifert contributed 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 steals. This was Purdue’s 14th straight home win, but they haven’t been as strong away from West Lafayette.
The Boilermakers are just 5-6 away from home this season, while going 12-0 at home. Despite registering some solid wins on the road, they are not the same team when they have to travel. Purdue managed to beat Maryland 62-60 at home earlier in the season, but they will have to kick it up a notch in order to win in front of the hostile Maryland fans.
Purdue is 2nd in adjusted offensive rating, scoring 125.03 points per 100 possessions. Carsen Edwards leads the Big Ten in scoring with 24.6 points per game. Edwards is also 7th in Division I in points per game. They turn the ball over on just 13.4% of their offensive plays, which ranks 18th in the nation. The Boilermakers are 47th in adjusted defensive rating, allowing 93.17 points per 100 possessions. They are 7th in overall net rating, beating teams by 31.85 points per 100 possessions.
The Maryland Terrapins have hit a small rough patch within their schedule. Maryland has lost 3 of their last 5 games after going on a 7 game win streak. 2 of those 3 losses were road defeats to Michigan State and Wisconsin, which are nothing to be ashamed of. The other defeat was a 78-67 loss to Illinois in Madison Square Garden, which is less explicable considering how much Illinois has struggled this season. The Terps have an overall record of 18-6 and a conference record of 9-4. They are tied with Wisconsin for 4th place in the Big Ten standings. Maryland is ranked 24th in the AP Top 25 College Basketball Poll and 25th in the Top 25 College Basketball Coaches Poll. They have quality wins over Minnesota, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, all of which took place during the 7-game win streak mentioned earlier. Just like Purdue, Maryland’s last game was a double digit victory over Nebraska.
Last Wednesday, the Terrapins beat the Cornhuskers 60-45 in Lincoln. It was a decidedly uneven shooting performance from the Terps. They went 22/58 (37.9%) from the field and 9/18 (50%) from the free throw line. However, Maryland won the game with a stellar defensive effort. They outrebounded Nebraska 53-42 and stifled the Cornhuskers’ shooters. Maryland forced Nebraska to shoot 12/57 (21.1%) from the floor and 4/17 (23.5%) from beyond the arc.
In the first matchup with Purdue, the 62-60 scoreline (in favor of Purdue) was indicative of how close these teams were. The 3-point shooting, free throw shooting, and turnover numbers were all very similar. Maryland’s star guard Anthony Cowan Jr. had a poor shooting night, but the Terrapins forced Purdue’s star guard Carsen Edwards into a poor shooting night as well. With Maryland playing at home, it’s possible that the close margin will tilt slightly in Maryland’s favor this time.
Maryland is 23rd in adjusted offensive rating, scoring 115.45 points per 100 possessions. Anthony Cowan, Jr. leads the team with 16.2 points per game and 4.5 assists per game The Terps are 31st in adjusted defensive rating, allowing 90.74 points per 100 possessions. They are 2nd in the nation in total rebound percentage, grabbing 57.4% of the available rebounds. Forward Bruno Fernando is 2nd in the Big Ten and 11th in the nation with 10.7 rebounds per game. Maryland has proven to be a solid team on both ends of the floor.
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
Purdue is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Purdue is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Purdue is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Maryland
Maryland is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Maryland’s last 7 games
Maryland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Purdue
ESPN NCAA Basketball Scores Purdue Boilermakers vs. Maryland Terrapins
I like Maryland to cover the spread in this matchup. These are two fundamentally even teams, so I’m comfortable with taking the home team giving 2 points. Purdue has been in better form over the past few weeks, but I think the XFinity Center will be the X-Factor here. Maryland plays at a higher level at home, while Purdue’s level of play dips on the road. Purdue will not have the rebounding edge in this game like they usually do against their opponents. If Purdue has a bad night shooting, they will not have second chance opportunities. Maryland will have the advantage when they are on offense. Maryland coach Mark Turgeon will be able to exploit some of Purdue’s defensive liabilities. It is also important to note that the Terrapins have had 6 days to rest and prepare for this game, while Purdue had a game on Saturday. Take Maryland and give the points.
Maryland Terrapins +2