San Diego State Aztecs (18-9) @ Utah State Aggies (22-6)
NCAA BB: Tuesday, February 26, 2019 at 9:30 pm ET (Dee Glen Smith Spectrum)
Line: Utah State -9
Free NCAA BB Spread Pick Utah State Aggies Vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Utah State looks for revenge Tuesday night as they take on San Diego State for the 2nd time this season. The Aztecs triumphed 68-63 in the 1st meeting. That loss for Utah State was the only defeat the Aggies have suffered in their last 12 games.
Despite their 22-6 record, Utah State has ZERO wiggle room as far as making the NCAA Tournament goes. In top bracketologist Dave Ommen’s latest bracket (published Monday, February 25th), the Aggies are the very last team in. A loss to San Diego State at home Tuesday would make their next game against #12 Nevada a must win affair.
Due to the collective ineptness of the Mountain West Conference (outside of the Nevada Wolf Pack) this season, Utah State simply hasn’t had many high quality win chances (3 in quadrant 1 and 5 in quadrant 2). They are just 3-5 in Q1/Q2 this season. In order to make the NCAA Tournament, Utah State likely needs to win the rest of their games up until the Mountain West Conference Tournament championship game and may even need to win the whole tournament.
San Diego State
An 18-9 record in the Mountain West conference this season is not enough to get a team in the conversation for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Plain and simple, San Diego State needs to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament to make it to the dance come mid-March.
While it will be difficult to beat both Utah State and Nevada in the semifinals and finals of that tournament, if momentum is any indicator the Aztecs have a fighting chance. San Diego State has won 8 of its last 9 games. In those 8 wins, their average margin of victory is more than 9 points and includes a win over Tuesday’s tough opponent.
I have no doubt head coach Brian Dutcher’s message to his players is something along the lines of this: “We’re playing as well as anyone in the conference right now. Let’s keep our heads down and take this 1 game at a time. If we do, we have an opportunity to make the NCAA Tournament.” The chances of making the tournament are slim, but that message and the Aztecs’ current level of play are equally undeniable.
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
13-6 in its last 19 home games
0-5 SU in its last 5 games against San Diego State
11-1 SU in its last 12 games
San Diego State
4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
5-0 SU in its last 5 games
11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 games against Utah State
Free NCAA BB Spread Pick San Diego State Aztecs Vs. Utah State Aggies
When 2 teams are both playing at a high level over an extended period, I tend to throw out the metrics, home court advantage, and overall season-long proficiency of the 2 teams. Yes, Utah State is a much better team if you look at the full season. I can guarantee you San Diego State’s lackluster performance to start this season is the last thing on their minds right now. They are playing well, they are confident, they feel they have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament, and they have already beaten Utah State this season. Take San Diego State with the points. You get a whopping 9 of them!
Pick: San Diego State +9