#24 Auburn Tigers (6-3, 3-3 Conf.) vs. #5 Georgia Bulldogs (8-1, 6-1 Conf.)
NCAA Football Saturday, November 10, 2018 @ 4:00PM EST (ESPN) (Sanford Stadium, GA)
Line and Odds: Georgia -14; O/U 52.5
Free NCAAF Pick Georgia Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers
The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off a convincing win against the Kentucky Wildcats on the road. Even though Kentucky ended up scoring ac couple of times in the 2nd Half, this was very much Georgia’s game. Does that mean that Georgia has been somewhat underrated since their loss to LSU or does that mean we’ve been overrating Kentucky this whole time? It’s probably the former. The Bulldogs rank 2nd, just being Alabama, in FEI overall efficiency, and 5th in the S&P+ ratings. This team is a legitimate powerhouse, and we’ve just all been sleeping on them.
The Auburn Tigers make little to no sense to me. They came in with a lot of hype at the beginning of the season, and delivered a commanding win against Washington to open the college football season. However, the Huskies ended up being a borderline ranked team. Beyond that, they lost to Tennessee AT HOME. Auburn is essentially a team that beats mediocre and bad teams, loses to good teams, and underperforms overall. Georgia’s defense is significantly worse than its offense (but not by much), and so the question remains whether Auburn can capitalize. I’m guessing it won’t; Auburn ranks just inside the Top 70 of offensive efficiency. Being on the road, this is going to be an even tougher matchup for the Tigers.
Cover the Spread 365 Betting Trends
0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Georgia on the road
Game total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 games when Auburn is playing Georgia
Game total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 6 games on the road
Game total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 6 games
1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Auburn
Since 2017, they are 14-8 ATS as a favorite
FREE NCAAF Pick Auburn Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Look… I don’t hate the SEC. I just hate how much everyone loves the SEC. When every other conference beats on each other, it’s called “cannibalizing,” and everyone drops out of the rankings. When the SEC beats up on each other, they’re considered “quality losses,” and they drop to number 7 even though they literally got shut out at home (I’m not bitter, I swear). So with that in mind, how do we possibly evaluate teams effectively? We have to go to the stats. Currently, Auburn averages 222 PY/G and 155 RY/G. However, when you look at their performance against teams currently in the Top 25 (and add Texas A&M as well), they’ve underperformed relative to their season averages. Going up against a Top 15 passing defense like Georgia in Athens is going to be a tall order that I don’t think Auburn is up to the task of handling.