Air Force Falcons (3-2) at San Diego State Aztecs (4-1)
NCAA Football: Friday, October 12th, 2018 9:00 ET
Line & Odds: SDSU -11.5 Over/Under 43.5
Air Force Falcons vs. San Diego State Aztecs FREE Pick, Prediction, Odds
Welcome to heaven! There’s football every day of the week and the games just keep coming. This week’s Friday NCAAF contest features Air Force facing off against a resurgent San Diego State squad. Who’s got the edge? Let’s get rolling with CoverTheSpread365’s FREE NCAAF Friday night football pick.
San Diego State Preview
San Diego State is having the kind of Cinderella season we’re more used to seeing in a Hollywood movie than in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs come into this game at a healthy 4-1 with their only loss at Stanford. Since being beaten down by the Cardinal in August, SDSU has turned into one of the most surprising teams this season. The Aztecs have two signature wins this year. They defeated the Arizona State Sun Devils in a hard fought battle in Week 3 and followed that up last week by defeating Boise State on the blue field as double-digit underdogs. While the Aztecs have some huge wins on their resume, San Diego State has some serious questions on the offense side of the football. Despite pulling off some big upsets, the Aztecs offense ranks a pedestrian 99th out of 130 FBS teams in offensive efficiency.
If you’re looking for some left-coast flash, San Diego State’s offense certainly isn’t going to give it to you. This team is content to pound the ball inside, eking out small advantages through run-blocking schemes and grinding it out on the ground. Quarterback Ryan Agnew is completing only 55% of his passes as a junior and attempted only 15 throws in last week’s win. While throwing downfield isn’t the Aztecs’ strong suit, they come into tonight’s game with a vicious running attack. However, their most powerful runner – junior Juwan Washington – is currently on the shelf dealing with a broken clavicle. Last week, shifty sophomore Chase Jasmin filled in admirably finishing with 78 yards rushing and a touchdown. He is listed as probable with a hamstring issue for tonight’s game. Even while healthy, Jasmin has not displayed Washington’s breakaway speed or superior vision.
Air Force Preview
Air Force comes into Friday night’s contest at a pedestrian 3-2. The Falcons put the beatdown on armed-forces brethren Navy last week to the tune of 35-7. While head coach Troy Calhoun has led the Falcons to nine bowl games in his twelve-year tenure as Air Force’s head coach, the academy is coming off of a a 5-7 2017 season filled with close-but-no-cigar losses. Air Force has also had a couple of heartbreakers this year, as they were narrowly defeated by Florida Atlantic by six and Nevada by just a field goal. Air Force features their classic triple-option attack on offense and an aggressive defense anchored by lineman Jordan Jackson and outside linebacker Lakota Wills. As is well-published, the triple-option presents unique difficulties for opposing defenses – particularly on a short week. Air Force’s unorthodox rushing attack is exactly what San Diego State doesn’t want to see after feasting on more traditional teams over the last month.
San Diego State Trends
San Diego State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
San Diego State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego State’s last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State’s last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego State’s last 9 games when playing Air Force
Air Force Trends
Air Force is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Air Force is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Air Force is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Air Force’s last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Air Force’s last 9 games when playing San Diego State
NCAAF San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons FREE Pick – Under 43.5
Both teams come into tonight’s game without a clear-cut passing attack. San Diego State, so powerful on the ground, is dealing with multiple injuries to their front-line running backs. Air Force, while having no shortage of available runners, has no vertical passing game to punish teams from packing the box to stop the run. While San Diego State at -11.5 is my best bet on a side, I see more value in this game’s total. With both teams focused on ground and pound, I look for tonight’s SDSU vs. Air Force game to go UNDER the posted game total of 43.5.
The Pick: UNDER 43.5