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UCF Knights vs. Memphis Tigers

Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights Free NCAA Football Prediction

#10 UCF Knights (5-0) at Memphis Tigers (4-2)

NCAA Football: Saturday, October 13th, 2018 at 3:30 pm (Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium)

Line and Odds: UCF Knights -4.5 Over/Under 78

Free NCAA Football Pick UCF Knights vs. Memphis Tigers

Two AAC title contenders meet as the UCF Knights face the Memphis Tigers.

The UCF Knights are ranked #10 in the most recent Associated Press Top 25 Poll. They enter this game riding an 18-game win streak going back to 2017. The Knights played Memphis twice last season. They beat Memphis 40-13 early in the regular season and beat Memphis 62-55 in the conference championship game. There was some speculation about how the UCF program would handle the departure of Scott Frost. However, new head coach Josh Heupel has been able to keep the program’s momentum going. For example, UCF ranks 6th in the nation in scoring offense with 48.6 points per game. In 2017, they scored 48.2 points per game. Central Florida is currently ranked 3rd in total offense as they’ve averaged 574.4 yards per game. Their 7.16 yards per play rate puts them 10th in the FBS. UCF ranks 2nd in the nation in 3rd down efficiency, converting 59.09% of their 3rd down attempts. Their offense is explosive, but it is also well-balanced. The Knights are 9th in rushing offense and 19th in passing offense.

There are 6 UCF Knights who have rushed at least 20 times and have an average of at least 5.3 yards per carry. It is rare to find that combination of balance and production within a team’s running game. On the passing side, QB McKenzie Milton leads the AAC in pass yards per game. He’s gone 102 for 171 with 1,501 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. McKenzie Milton also has a passer rating of 157.7 this year. The Knights’ defense gives up 17.4 points per game and 4.75 yards per play. Those numbers rank 2nd and 3rd in the AAC, respectively. The UCF Defense excels in pass defense, especially. They rank 11th nationally in pass yards per attempt allowed. They have 6 defenders who have gotten at least 1 interception. DB Richie Grant leads the way with 3 picks. Their ball-hawking secondary is a key reason why they rank 10th in the FBS with a +7 turnover margin. One more amazing fact about this UCF team heading into this match-up is that they don’t have anyone on the injury report this week. They are remarkably healthy through 5 games.

The Memphis Tigers have had this game circled on their calendars since the schedule came out. They are looking for revenge for the 62-55 loss they suffered at the hands of UCF in last year’s conference championship game. The Liberty Bowl will be filled with excited, raucous fans hoping to erase the memory of last season’s heartbreaking loss. Statistically, Memphis has an offense that’s just as productive as UCF. The Tigers rank 6th in the FBS with 547.2 yards per game. More impressively, they average 8.57 yards per play which is good for 3rd in the country. Memphis scores slightly fewer points than UCF, averaging 46.2 points per game. The strength of their team is their rushing attack. They are 1st in the nation with 7.73 yards per rush attempt. Running back Darrell Henderson is the man that makes the Tigers’ rushing offense go. He leads the entire nation with 11.82 yards per carry and he’s 2nd with 155.7 rush yards per game. Henderson is also 2nd in the FBS in rushing touchdowns.

The most amazing part of Henderson’s season is that he’s accomplished all of his numbers in just 13 carries per game. The Tigers have done a good job of pairing a productive running game with an efficient passing attack. QB Brady White has a 69.2% completion percentage with 1,549 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just 1 interception. Memphis converts 50.77% of their 3rd downs, making them 2nd in the AAC (behind only UCF). On defense, Memphis is 4th in the AAC in yards per game allowed (348.7), scoring defense (24.5 ppg) and yards per play allowed (4.91). However, they rank 9th in the conference in opponent’s 3rd down conversion percentage. They’ve allowed opponents to convert 43.16% of their 3rd down attempts. LB Bryce Huff ranks 2nd in the AAC with 5.0 sacks and 11.0 tackles for loss. In fact, Huff is 6th in the entire nation in tackles for loss.

Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends

Knights

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida’s last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida’s last 6 games when playing Memphis

Central Florida is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Tigers

Memphis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Central Florida

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis’s last 6 games when playing Central Florida

Memphis is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home

Free NCAA Football Prediction Memphis Tigers vs. UCF Knights

I’m taking the under in this match-up. There is a reason why the over/under (78) is so high. These are two of the most explosive offenses in college football. However, I have questions about whether Memphis will be able to put up points on UCF. In Memphis’ four games vs. weaker opponents, the Tigers have scored over 50 points in each of them. In their 2 games vs. tougher opponents, they’ve scored under 25 points. I believe Memphis’ scoring is a byproduct of an extraordinarily easy schedule.

They’ve struggled against teams who are familiar with their system. I’m more confident that UCF will be able to score their share of points, but Memphis’ defense will be looking to make amends for last year’s 2 poor performances vs UCF. The Tigers defense will play as good of a game as they can play. I’m envisioning a score along the lines of 36-31. I like the under at 78 points.

PICK: Under 78

I want a @AlabamaFTBL and @UCF_Football game so bad

I cannot WAIT for the @ScooterMagruder videos this week for the @dallascowboys reactions and the @UCF_Football appearance in the college football reactions. @UCF_Football better get more than a small cameo!

Who suffered the worst loss in College Football in Week 7?

Where does @UCF_Football stand now?

@ThatMarkMiller & @THEDavidMoulton tell you...in the latest edition of the @KineticoH20 #Podcast

👇👇👇🏈🏈🏈

https://t.co/edMwmnUuYJ…

#UCFast at it again; Knights force SMU punt then drive 70 yards quickly, with Otis Anderson scoring on 4-yard TD run

#UCF 21, #SMU 3, 1st 2:55

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According to @MaxPreps @bryceanorton is #1 in Florida for Total Yards and #12 in the USA! How about that for a Sophomore??!?? @VieraHawks @UCF_Football @USFFootball @larryblustein @Dwight_XOS @MemphisFB @HuskerFBNation

[email protected] See that left hand wrapped around the back coving the 0 on his jersey? Thats a hold. Sorry.

Check out this highlight! ⁦@coach_stepp⁩ ⁦@CoachSElliott⁩ ⁦@USAFBRecruits⁩ ⁦@CMU_Football⁩ ⁦@MemphisFB⁩ ⁦@WKURecruiting⁩ ⁦@RiceFootball⁩ ⁦@MontanaGrizFB⁩ ⁦@CoachWelshMiami⁩ ⁦@coachapatterson⁩ https://t.co/ZxbDGVlCGh

B4 2014 the program was the less attractive job or destination,many of us take it 4 granted all the adversity that @MemphisFB has 2 go true 2 be the program that is today,this season is different, new QB,many frsm,etc but still this boys go and play hard #Respect @Coach_Norvell

I was super impressed by the whole @MemphisFB gameday. The tiger walk tail gating, the live Tiger, the Blue out and fan energy. You were gracious hosts and play tough football. Always a great match up with @UCF_Football

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Lorenzo Archer
Lorenzo Archer
Lorenzo is an expert with give unparalleled advice when it comes to the NBA, NFL and college sports. His slogan is "Eye Test Sports Without Stats" and that's exactly what you are going to get here. No fancy stats, just observation and analysis!
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