Atlanta Falcons (1-3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)
NFL Football Sunday, October 07, 2018 at 1:00 pm (Heinz Field)
Line and Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers -3 — Over/Under 57.5
FREE NFL Pick Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Just like the first time you had dinner with your significant other’s parents, were heading into a matchup of disappointments as the Matt Ryan led Atlanta Falcons head to Heinz Field to face off against Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in what should be an absolute defenseless abyss.
So, the Atlanta Falcons have taken drastic steps forward offensively since the previous year. Matt Ryan, currently ranked 6th in the NFL with just north of 1300 yards, is on pace to shatter his highest career yardage mark. His favorite target, Julio Jones, is slated to do the same currently on pace for 2000 plus yards and currently leads the league in the aforementioned. Match that with their 2018 first round draft pick Calvin Ridley leading the league in touchdown receptions (*cough* Julio *cough*) along with a +17% in red zone efficiency (66% up from 49% in 2017) and the Falcons should be eyeing a shot at the super bowl, right? Yeah, no. Where Steve Sarkisian has shifted the public stigma towards his offense, on the other side of the ball, the Falcons are the equivalent to a Rosie O’Donnell back massage. Heading into Sunday, the Falcons are currently allowing 403 yards a game, which is good enough to be ranked in the bottom five of defensive efficiency. Well, at least it sets up for what should be a lock of an over.
Reaching our next red-headed stepchild of disappointment, we have the Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers. Now, what in the world is going on here. You have Ben leading the league in yardage, you have a young running back in James Conner poised to take over for Le’Veon Bell (yeah right), and the bar-none best receiver in the game, Antonio Brown. How in the world are they tying the browns? Well let’s return to a name that I may have glossed over: Le’Veon Bell. In the first four games of the season, Ben has chucked the ball 186 times. That’s 46 more passes than he had thrown at this point last year. That’s an entire game, and not just a game, a shootout where the score is 45-42. He’s currently on par for a modest 744 passes in a season! 744! You think that happens with Bell still in the backfield? Not a shot. For the time being and betting purposes alone, we have no reason to believe that this unrelenting pass game is going to settle until Bell’s possible return week 7.
Cover the Spread 365 Betting Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh’s last 9 games at home
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 6 games
FREE NFL Prediction Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons
So yeah the trends tell you a lot, but don’t get trapped. Be sure you note that the Falcons, who have been an offensive juggernaut as of late, have done the majority of their damage at home. Always easier in a dome especially for Matty *sort-of* Ice. Pittsburgh is an absolute dumpster fire currently and were getting pretty close to panic time, but luckily for us, that should spell a whole lot of points. Neither defense can stop a nosebleed with a hand towel so throw it up. Oh, and just to be clear, I couldn’t care less that the over is 57.5. This game is going higher than Lindsay Lohan at a Wiz Khalifa concert in Jamaica. Remember, its un-American to bet the under. TAKING THE POINTS.
PICK PREDICTION: OVER 57.5