NFL: Sunday, December 23rd, 2018 at 1 pm (Gillette Stadium)
Line: New England -13
Free NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
One of the more important games this Sunday, that will effect the AFC playoff picture features the Buffalo Bills going in to New England and playing the Patriots.
The Patriots have been very un-Patriot like lately. They have lost two straight and last week, they only scored 10 points against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tom Brady, while the stats look solid on paper (65.9 completion percentage for 3,979 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions), has had a down year. He had not been able to carry the team offensively like he has in done in the past. Their offense just looks bland. TE, Rob Gronkowski has a major down year (only 45 receptions, 658 yards and only 3 touch downs) and wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman have had moments but have not been consistent. Running Back, James White, started out hot but has not been nearly as productive lately. And that is just the offense; New England’s defense has not been great this year either as they have given up an average of 22.7 point per game. And, with all that said, the Patriots are looking to win double digit games again, win the AFC East again and could possibly still get a first round bye in the playoffs. They would clinch the division with a win on Sunday.
The Bills are looking to build momentum towards next year. They currently sit at 5-9 but they are coming off a 14-13 win against the Detroit Lions. Rookie quarterback, Josh Allen has had moments this year where he has looked like the answer. While his passing numbers do not look great (52.2 completion percentage for 1,633 yards, six touchdowns and nine interceptions), he has been great running the ball and his passing as of late has been a bit better. Overall though, offense has been a struggle for the Bills who rank 31st in the league in points per game. Their defense, however, has been excellent. They rank 14th in the league in points per game allowed and are allowing under 300 yards a game. This is something the Bills can definitely build on for next year.
4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. AFC East
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December
2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall
The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings
The under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 road games
4-0 ATS in their last 4 against Buffalo
24-11 ATS in their last 35 vs. AFC
37-15-2 ATS in their last 54 home games
36-16 ATS in their last 52 games overall
The under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games overall
Free NFL Prediction Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
The Bills have been frisky of late. While their last three wins have come against teams with losing records, each of their last five games have resulted in either a win or a loss by single digits. The Patriots have not looked like themselves lately but they have every incentive to right the ship. They have lost consecutive games in December for the first time since 2002. On the flip side, the Pats have covered 12 of their last 14 times they have been double digit favorites and have already beaten them by 19 this year on the road. I think the Pats get right and the Bills are the sacrificial lamb this week.
The Pick: Pats -13.5