San Francisco 49ers (15-3) vs Kansas City Chiefs (14-4)
Super Bowl, Hard Rock Stadium Miami Gardens, FL at 6:30 PM (EST)
The Line: KC -1.5 Total 54
After 256 regular-season contests over 17 weeks and 10 postseason games spread over three weeks, we’ve reached the pinnacle of the season, the Super Bowl. The San Francisco 49ers are the visiting team as they face the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV down in South Beach. San Francisco earned their seventh Super Bowl berth as they crushed Green Bay 37-20 in the NFC Championship Game at home on January 19. Kansas City reached the Super Bowl for the third time in franchise history as they rallied past the Titans 35-24 at home in the AFC Championship Game on January 19. The 49ers lead the all-time regular-season series 7-6 but the Chiefs won the last matchup, 38-27, at home on September 23, 2018. This marks the first time that the teams have met in postseason play.
How ready are the 49ers?
San Francisco finished the regular season with a 13-3 mark to win the NFC West crown and secure home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The 49ers rolled to an 8-0 start to the season before losing in overtime at home to Seattle in week 10. That loss proved important as the season wore on, which we’ll get to. San Francisco rebounded with two wins before losing to Baltimore on the road on a field goal as time expired in Week 13. That was followed by a wild 48-46 win in the Superdome over the Saints in Week 14 and another last-second loss, 29-22, at home to the Falcons in week 15. San Francisco rallied to edge the Rams 34-31 on the road in week 16 to set up a winner take all week 17 clash with the Seahawks in Seattle. The 49ers prevailed 26-21 after stopping Jacob Hollister less than a yard short of the end zone on fourth and goal with 12 seconds to play. That win gave the 49ers the division crown and home field advantage, plus the first-round bye. Had they lost, they would have been a wild card team on the road. In the NFC Divisional Playoff, San Francisco shut down Minnesota 27-10, limiting the Vikings to only 21 rushing yards and seven first downs, to reach the NFC Championship Game.
In the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers faced a Green Bay team that they walloped 37-8 at home back in week 12. With a Super Bowl berth at stake, San Francisco clearly answered the call. The 49ers used their power ground game to batter the Packers and build up a hefty lead, allowing them to just play the clock game in the second half en route to the Super Bowl. San Francisco ran the ball 42 times for 285 yards and four scores in the contest while throwing the ball only eight times. The 49ers were up 27-0 at the half thanks to 10 points in the final two minutes of the half. Raheem Mostert did the damage, carrying the ball 29 times for 220 yards and four scores. It marked the first time in NFL history that a running back ran for more than 200 yards and four touchdowns in a playoff game. Mostert’s performance was the second-most rushing yards in a playoff game, behind only Eric Dickerson, who went for 248 for the Rams against the Cowboys in a 20-0 Los Angeles win on January 4, 1986. San Francisco was edged 358-354 in total offense with most of Green Bay’s yards coming with the game long decided. The 49ers were edged 21-19 in first downs and 31:13 to 28:47 in time of possession. San Francisco won the turnover battle 3-0, turning those takeaways into 10 points.
Or does the Chiefs have a better chance?
Kansas City finished the regular season 12-4 and ran away with the AFC West title as no other team in the division finished better than 7-9. The Chiefs started the year 4-0 before losing three of their next four games to reach the midway point of the year 5-3. Kansas City played two and a half games without Patrick Mahomes, who dislocated his knee against the Broncos in week 7. That injury kept him out in a loss to Green Bay in week 8 and a win over Minnesota in week 9. Mahomes returned in a 35-32 loss to Tennessee on the road in week 10 but the team caught fire after that last-second loss. The Chiefs won their final six games. Their win over the Chargers in week 17, coupled with Miami’s last-minute rally to stun the Patriots in Foxboro, gave Kansas City the second seed in the AFC and a first-round bye, while dropping New England to the wild-card round. In the AFC Divisional Playoff against Houston, Kansas City found themselves in a 24-0 hole early in the second quarter before finding their groove. Once the Chiefs got started, they blew the Texans out of the water, outscoring them 51-7 the rest of the way en route to a 51-31 win. That sent them to the AFC Championship Game for the second straight year.
In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs got off to a slow start again, much as they did in the AFC Championship Game loss to New England last season and in the AFC Divisional Playoff last week against Houston. Kansas City trailed 10-0 early in the contest and was down 17-7 after allowing Tennessee to embark on a 15 play, 75-yard drive that chewed 9:07 off the clock. The Chiefs rallied to lead 21-17 at the half with two touchdown drives in the final 6:39 of the first half, including a 27-yard touchdown run by Patrick Mahomes with 11 seconds to play before halftime to take the lead for good. All told, Kansas City reeled off 28 unanswered points after falling behind 17-7 with Mahomes’ 60-yard touchdown pass to Sammy Watkins with 7:40 to play in the game the backbreaker. The Chiefs held a 404-295 edge in total offense, rolled up a 27-20 advantage in first downs and overcame a narrow 30:10 to 29:50 disadvantage in time of possession. There were no turnovers in the game and Kansas City held Derrick Henry in check as he finished with 19 carries for 69 yards and a score.
Cover the Spread Betting Trends
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Francisco’s last 12 games.
San Francisco are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
San Francisco are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Kansas City.
San Francisco are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games on the road.
San Francisco are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City.
San Francisco are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games this season.
San Francisco are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against an opponent in the AFC conference.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games.
Kansas City are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games.
Kansas City are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at home.
Kansas City are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco.
Kansas City are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games this season.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games against an opponent in the NFC conference.
Kansas City are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Kansas City’s last 20 games played on a Sunday.
Free NFL Expert Picks for Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers do not have any glaring weaknesses on their team but the defensive secondary could be a liability and the 49ers have not played well when facing a mobile quarterback such as Patrick Mahomes, who rushed for 53 yards against the Titans in the AFC Championship game. Kansas City must continue with its explosive passing attack and on defense find a way to stop the ground game of the 49ers. Final Score Prediction, Kansas City Chiefs win and cover ATS 28-24.