Ben Roethlisberger, Deshaun Watson and Kirk Cousins
NFL Football: Wednesday, September 12, 2018 at 10:00 pm
Roethlisberger — Over/Under: 4,449.5 YDS Watson — Over/Under: 17.5 INTS. Cousins –Over/Under: 25.5 TDs
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Big Ben might be the most overlooked quarterbacks when it comes to top tier passers. The two-time Super Bowl champion always finds a way to throw for around 4,000 yards and covets arguably the best receiver in the game in Antonio Brown. Not to mention, he ranks eighth in career passing yards and their without Le’Veon Bell for who knows how long making Pittsburgh more reliant on the right arm of Roethlisberger.
Waston bursted onto the scene as a rookie last year throwing for 19 touchdowns in seven games and boasts a top-3 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. Although he threw eight interceptions in less than half a season, the Clemson alum now has a full season under his belt with both physically and mentally. The defense improving is also a plus with the return of J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus along with the additions of Tyrann Mathieu and Aaron Colvin in the back end. A Texans’ defense that can preserve a lead bodes well for Watson, who is also coming off a Torn ACl, limiting his chances of throwing the ball 40 plus times a game and avoiding costly turnovers playing from behind every game. And while he put up unsustainable numbers during a remarkable run last year, it’s hard to imagine Watson regressing to the extent of 18 interceptions.
Finally out of the unappreciative Redskins organization, Cousins signed a fully guaranteed 84 millions dollar contract with Minnesota in hopes of taking the championship rostered Vikings one step further than last year. With weapons like Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph and Dalvin Cook, the former Washington quarterback certainly upgraded from his previous skill players. His new team even comes with an elite defense and although that’s not necessarily a good thing for Captain Kirk to throw more touchdowns, it’s worth noting new Vikings offensive coordinator John DeFlippo was an integral part in Carson Wentz development last year as the Eagles’ quarterback coach. Oh by the way, Wentz threw for 33 touchdowns in 13 games so don’t be surprised if Cousins can somewhat replicate those numbers.
Cover the Spread 365 Trends:
The OVER has hit in 6 of the Steelers’ last 7 games (avg. combined score: 60.9).
The Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 September road games.
The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The Texans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the Titans.
The Titans are 1-5 SU in their last six games at home in September.
The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Texans’ last nine games in September.
The total has gone UNDER in six of the Vikings’ last seven games against the Packers (avg. combined score: 37.71).
The Vikings are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
The Vikings are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Packers.
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Roethlisberger might have one of the top receiving cores in the NFL with Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster along with the possible emergence of rookie James Washington. Despite Bell’s absence, James Conner looks like he will assume that bell-cow role that Bell plays and is a reasonable pass catcher. So even if Bell and his 85 receptions from last year sit out till Week 10, Conner will garner most of those targets and Roethlisberger won’t lose much in terms of passing yardage out of the backfield. Roethlisberger has also thrown for 300 yards in 59 games over his career and has said his arm feels even stronger this year during a recent interview with ESPN’s Chris Berman so expect the yardage to be there. I’d even be more surprised if he didn’t eclipse that mark. Watson throwing more than 17.5 interceptions seems ridiculous and even coming off major knee surgery, Watson looks more destined to tuck and run when in trouble rather than chuck one up like it’s a game of Jackpot to the opposing team. As for Cousins, if Diggs and Cook can stay healthy this looks like an offense that could set records despite offensive line woes. Cousins has also thrown for at least 25 touchdowns over the last three years. His best receiver over the course of that span you ask? Desean Jackson. I think I’ve made my case.
Ben Roethlisberger — Over: 4,409.5 YDS
Deshaun Watson — Under: 17.5 INTS
Kirk Cousins — Over 25.5 TDS