HEDGING BETS FOR THE SUPER BOWL
Few are shocked to see the New England Patriots back in the Big Game. They opened as favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy in 2019 at 5/1, even after losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LII.
The Los Angels Rams, however, weren’t expected to be making a Super Bowl appearance in Year 2 of the Sean McVay era, opening at 25/1 to win the NFL championship last February.
Both teams’ Super Bowl betting odds fluctuated throughout the season, with the Rams entering the postseason at 5/1 while the Patriots were priced at 6/1.
If you’re holding a futures ticket on the Patriots or the Rams, here’s the proper way to hedge and guarantee yourself profit, when the confetti flies in Super Bowl LIII.
What does hedging mean?
Hedging a bet is essentially an insurance plan. A $100 bettor with the ticket on the Rams at 25/1 is looking at a possible $2,500 winning ticket. Of course, the ticket could also be worthless if the Patriots ending up winning the Super Bowl outright.
The smart play for the L.A. bettor would be to wager half of the potential winnings ($1,250 in this case) on New England to win on the money line. The Past are around -125 to win outright which means our bettor is looking at only a $1,000 profit in this scenario, but it’s much better than the alternative should Tom Brady and Bill Belichick win another ring.
Some people will argue letting it ride is gambling in a truer sense. Go big or go home. A hedge bet is not for those types of people.
As for the $100 New England bettor who took that Pats earlier this year at 5/1? Well, the hedge actually works out better due to the fact they can toss half of their possible winnings ($250) on the Rams’ money line at +105 (winning $262.50)
If the Patriots bettor is really balmy, they could roll the dice an try to win on both sides with a bet on Rams +1.5 (-110), giving them a chance to win both bets should New England squeak out a 1-point win the Super Bowl. However, with a spread this tight and the fact that this line already jumped from New England +1 to -1.5 at some books, the Super Bowl spread could end up closing as a pick’em anyways.