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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)

NFL Football: Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 8:20 pm (Gillette Stadium)

Line and Odds: New England Patriots -10.5 — Over/Under: 53.5

FREE NFL Prediction New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

We start Week 5 of the NFL season with some Thursday Night Football action in Foxborough, as the New England Patriots play host the Indianapolis Colts. Indianapolis battled but came up a 37-34 overtime loser at home to Houston, and New England snapped a two game slump as they twerked an unbeaten Miami team 38-7 at home.

Indianapolis would hire Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich as coach, and he made an incredibly stupid decision on Sunday that led directly to his team’s overtime loss against Houston. Andrew Luck had a monster game, posting 464 yards and four touchdowns. The Colts are only a couple of plays from being 4-0 instead of 1-3 and may not have top receiver T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) this week. Andrew Luck has hit 125 of 186 passes for 1,126 yards with nine touchdowns against only three interceptions while getting sacked nine times. He has added 53 yards on the ground. New England ended a rare two-game skid with Sunday’s blowout win over Miami, but Rob Gronkowski left with a hamstring injury. If he sits here, and with the short turnaround that seems likely, it’s a major loss for Brady. There’s a lot of bad blood in this matchup as Colts were set to hire Pats offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as their new head coach- only for Patriots owner Robert Kraft to swoop in at the last minute and convince McDaniels to stay. Major egg on the Colts’ face.

The New England fans should be in full throat Thursday because they blame the Colts for Deflategate – Indy was the team that turned in the Patriots and Tom Brady for deflated footballs in their AFC Championship matchup against New England following the 2014 season. Prior to Week 4, you may have heard that Tom Brady was not only walking near the precipice but had fallen off that professional cliff, and Bill Belichick was fiddling while Foxboro burned. The sky was falling in New England according to the pundits, who allegedly know more than you, and the end was nigh after nearly two decades of domination! Patriots have heard it all before but consider that eventually the so – called experts will be right. Yet, it appears that the reports of New England’s demise have once again been greatly exaggerated in light of the Patriots’ 38-7 pounding of the previously undefeated Miami Dolphins this past Sunday. It was a stunning reversal from their Week 3 malaise in which New England dropped a 26-10 egg to the Lions. Furthermore, Brady will get back Julian Edelman, though, from his four-game suspension, which will be greatly needed if Rob Gronkowski isn’t ready to go.

Cover The Spread 365 NFL Betting Trends

Patriots 

14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 5

8-2 ATS versus a team with a losing record

21-7 ATS in their last 28 versus the AFC

Colts

12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games

15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 5

35-16 in their last 51 games following a straight up loss

FREE NFL Pick New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

My first impulse was to consider Indianapolis with the points. Underdogs of seven or more are a respectable 6-6 ATS this season. But when breaking down the matchup, that is where Indianapolis becomes less attractive. In both New England losses, which were on the road, the one element that was in play is teams ran at the Patriots with a great deal of success. Miami tried that, but New England made adjustments in gas control and because built an early lead, they were able to dictate the tempo. The Colts are 29th in rushing, and to think they will take advantage of the Pats seems foolish. Look for Pats to control the run game, which also mans control tempo and pace. It will be New England by 17.

New England Patriots -10.5

 

 

Most Complete Rosters in 2019:

9. @Patriots
8. @ChicagoBears
7-1. https://t.co/OWtOACKktg (via @AdamSchein)

BIG new plans for the @Patriots offense? https://t.co/Rdtpn5K1JQ

BREAKING: Chris Long announces retirement after 11 NFL seasons with the @RamsNFL, @Patriots and @Eagles.

[email protected] signing LB Jamie Collins.

Collins was the Patriots' 2013 second-round pick. (via @RapSheet)

The BIGGEST addition to the 2019 @Patriots offense? https://t.co/jqhY5OOW30

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#Colts sign QB Chad Kelly. Had been speculated. Kelly a 7th-round pick of Denver in 2017. Worked with Colts as tryout in rookie minicamp.

Colts' OL @MarkGlowinski73 made a good deed into a workout by pushing a stranger's car to a gas station after they ran out of gas 💪

(via @Colts)

Talking #Colts with ⁦@DaveG_Sports⁩ and ⁦@RotoStreetJoe⁩. Good stuff. Trust me.
| CBS 4 - Indianapolis News, Weather, Traffic and Sports | WTTV https://t.co/MDT9r3sVVc

Handful of Indy media spent couple of hours in #Colts draft room w/GM Chris Ballard. Incredibly informative. Offered detailed look at how they evaluate players in general, and this year's draft class in particular. Also great info on certain vets. Good info for upcoming content.

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Carli
Carli
Amongst us, Carly is notorious for spotting anomalies in inflated lines and more specifically prop plays. His background in quantitative analysis allows him to see things quite differently. Perhaps the best situational handicapper on the east coast! Typically, you will find him being a contrarian on very specific details, and it always seems to pay off at the right time.
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