New England Patriots (7-3) at New York Jets (3-7)
NFL: Sunday, November 25th, 2018 at 1:00 pm (MetLife Stadium)
Line and Odds: New England Patriots -9.5 Over/Under: 46.5
Free NFL Pick New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are looking to get back in the hunt for the #1 seed in the AFC. The Pats are currently 1st in the AFC East and 3rd in the AFC. In order to get a top 2 seed, they’re going to have to prove that they can consistently win on the road. New England is 5-0 at home, but just 2-3 on the road. They’ve suffered three bad losses away from Gillette Stadium this season. New England lost at Jacksonville 31-20, at Detroit 26-10, and at Tennessee 34-10. They ran into a buzz-saw in their most recent game vs. the Titans. The Pats were facing a team full of ex-Patriots looking for revenge, and a former Patriots player as head coach. I don’t expect to see that type of performance going forward. New England’s offense is strong, but we haven’t seen the usual greatness we expect from that side of the ball. They average 5.7 yards per play, which ranks 13th in the NFL. New England is 10th in total offense, averaging 377.2 yards per game. Most impressively, the Pats are 7th in scoring offense. They’ve put up 28.0 points per game this season.
New England’s offense is 16th in turnovers lost with 13 giveaways. They convert 39.7% of their third down attempts, ranking 14th in the NFL. QB Tom Brady has been solid. He has thrown for a 65.2% completion percentage and an average of 7.4 yards per attempt. Brady also has a touchdown to interception ratio of 17 to 7 and a 94.7 passer rating. Unfortunately for Brady, both Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski are listed as questionable for the game against the NY Jets. However, the RB duo of James White and Sony Michel are healthy and will contribute offensively. On defense, New England’s strength is their ability to force turnovers. They have forced 17 turnovers, ranking 6th in the NFL in takeaways. The rest of their defensive numbers are much less impressive. New England is 24th in total defense, allowing 381.4 yards per game. They give up 5.8 yards per play, ranking 18th in the league. The Patriots rank 15th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 23.6 points per game. New England’s 3rd down defense is particularly leaky. They allow opponents to convert 43.1% of their third down attempts, ranking 25th in the league.
The New York Jets are in the midst of an ugly stretch of football. They’re currently last in the AFC East and 15th in the AFC. They are in the middle of a 4 game losing streak. The most recent performance was a 41-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills. I feel confident in saying that this was the worst game any NFL team has played all season. How do you lose at home by 31 points to one of the worst teams in the NFL who was starting a quarterback they picked up off the street 2 weeks earlier? It was an embarrassment. Any credible team that’s coming off of a loss like that and a bye week will come out with their hair on fire. The Jets have one of the worst offensives in the NFL. New York averages just 4.9 yards per play, ranking 30th in the league. They are 29th in total offense, averaging 299.4 yards per game. Not only are they unproductive, but they turn the ball over way too much. The Jets have 22 giveaways through 10 games, ranking 31st in turnovers lost. New York is also dead last when it comes to 3rd down. They only convert 28.8% of their third down attempts.
The Jets are 23rd in scoring offense, averaging 20.8 points per game. QB Sam Darnold is questionable which means QB Josh McCown may have to start another game. WR Robby Anderson is also questionable, so the receiving options may be limited regardless of which quarterback starts. The Jets’ defense is much better than their offense. They give up 5.4 yards per play, ranking 11th in the NFL. They have forced 15 turnovers which makes them 10th in takeaways. Todd Bowles‘ blitzing defense is exceptional on 3rd down. They allow their opponents to convert just 33.3% of their 3rd down attempts, ranking 2nd in the NFL. Their scoring defense and total defense numbers are poor because of how long they are on the field. They rank 19th in scoring defense and 23rd in total defense. The Jets allow 361.6 yards and 25.4 points per game. The strength of their defense is their linebacking corps. LB Avery Williamson leads the team with 78 tackles, LB Jordan Jenkins leads with 5.0 sacks and LB Darron Lee leads with 3 interceptions.
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
New England is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
New England is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Jets
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets’s last 7 games
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Free NFL Prediction New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
I like the Jets against the spread in this match-up. I don’t think Jets are a particularly good team, but I like the number. The 2018 Patriots have not proven that they can play consistent football on the road. They have come out flat in multiple road games this season. The Jets are an injured football team, but so is New England. I don’t expect McCown to play as poorly as he did the against the Bills, if Darnold is not healthy enough to start. The Jets have a proud defense and a proud defensive coaching staff. They will put forth their best effort for Todd Bowles and they will give New England’s offense problems. I don’t think the Jets win, but I expect them to cover. Take the Jets and the points.