NFL Football 2019 New Orleans Saints Win Total
Line and Odds: Over 10.5 wins (+110) / Under 10.5 wins (-130)
Free NFL Pick New Orleans Saints 2019 Win Total
Although 10.5 wins might seem like a bit of a regression from their 13 wins in 2018, Vegas’ projection still has the New Orleans Saints winning the NFC South for the third straight year. Following one of the most painful endings to a season in NFL history, the Saints are back and primed to make another deep playoff run.
Looking at their assemblage of players on paper, the Saints appear to be one of the league’s more well-rounded teams. However, there are a few causes for concern, such as Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees’ late-year decline in 2018 and the departure of running back Mark Ingram in free agency.
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24 wins since 2017
9/1 odds to win Super Bowl in 2019
Averaged 10.3 wins last 3 seasons
Under 10.5 wins (-130)
10.5 wins is definitely a lofty expectation, even for a team as accomplished as the Saints. Drew Brees’ age is really the only glaring concern for the Super Bowl hopefuls. It appeared that his arm strength began to diminish at the end of last year. In the final games of the season, Brees threw an equal amount of touchdowns and interceptions – very uncharacteristic for a player who has recorded 520 touchdowns to just 233 interceptions for his career.
A less-obvious issue is the team’s loss of Pro Bowl center Max Unger, who announced his retirement in March. Despite the absence of Unger, New Orleans’ offensive line should still be a very reliable unit.
Lastly, New Orleans’ schedule in 2019 will call for nothing short of their best effort. The NFL took notice of the Saints’ success last season and consciously sprinkled in some difficult non-division matchups. 4 out of their first 7 games will be on the road against the Rams, Seahawks, Bears and the Jaguars, all of whom have playoff experience. None of these matchups will be “easy wins”.
Over 10.5 wins (+110)
New Orleans has been one of the most consistent NFL powers over the last couple of seasons. Much of their recent dominance can be attributed to their success in the 2017 draft, during which they selected future starters Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams. In his two seasons in the NFL, Kamara has added balance to the Saints’ offense and has quickly become one of the premier running backs in all of football.
Assuming that Brees is able to avoid an extreme decline this year, it is safe to say that his dip in production last postseason was the result of fatigue and not age. Even if father time begins to take a toll on Brees, the rest of the Saints’ offense should be fine.
While Mark Ingram’s decision to sign with the Ravens will leave a hole, it is one that will be easily filled. Kamara’s continued ascension to superstardom is hard to ignore and 6-year veteran, Latavius Murray (signed in March), will provide a nice supplementary spark. 26-year-old Michael Thomas is in the conversation for the best wide receiver in football. At 6’3”, 203 lbs, Thomas possesses the perfect build for his position and will only continue to improve in 2019.
In terms of their defensive personnel, the Saints are stacked. Cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple headline a promising secondary and Pro Bowl edge rusher Cameron Jordan is a relentless force on the defensive line.
If New Orleans is able to make it out of the first half of their season with just one or two losses, their 2019 script might look very similar to theirs in 2018
Free NFL Prediction New Orleans Saints Win Total
The truth is, even 13 years into their partnership, Drew Brees and Sean Payton remain one of the most trustworthy duos in football.
The Saints will be additionally motivated in 2019 after the fashion in which their season ended last year (losing to the Rams in the NFC Championship on a controversial call). While they may be facing some tough competition this season, the Saints are still the preeminent talent in their division and have the roster to once again be one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL.
Pick: Over (+110)