New York Giants (4-8) at Washington Redskins (6-6)
NFL: Sunday, December 9th, 2018 at 1:00 pm (FedEx Field)
Line and Odds: New York Giants -3.5 Over/Under: 41
Free NFL Pick Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants
The New York Giants are looking to build momentum that they can carry with them into next season. Overall, the Giants’ season has been a bit of a disappointment. There were high hopes with the additions of head coach Pat Shurmur and RB Saquon Barkley. In hindsight, those expectations may have been unreasonable. New York is currently last in the NFC East and 13th in the NFC. Despite the tough results the Giants have had this year, they continue to fight hard. They are 3-1 in their last 4 games after going 1-7 in the first half of the season. The Giants notched a 27-23 win over San Francisco, a 38-35 win over Tampa Bay, and a 30-27 win over Chicago. In that 4 game stretch, New York suffered a 25-22 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. This hasn’t been the toughest 4 game schedule, especially when considering Chicago was starting Chase Daniel and not Mitchell Trubisky. However, these are still encouraging results after such a bad start to the season. The playoffs are probably out of reach and they are damaging the standing of their NFL Draft position. Having said that, this a team that is playing with pride. The Giants’ offense has performed below expectations when considering all of the talent they have on that side of the ball. New York is 12th in yards per play, averaging 5.8 yards on every offensive play run. They are 21st in the NFL in total offense, gaining 350.2 yards per game. The Giants are 19th in scoring offense, scoring 22.3 points per game. They have turned the ball over 13 times, ranking 8th in the NFL in terms of giveaways. The big problem for New York has been their 3rd down and red zone offenses. New York is 24th in 3rd down percentage and 30th in red zone touchdown percentage. Their inability to convert in high leverage situations has hampered them the entire season. Defensively, the Giants are below average. They allow 5.8 yards per play, which ranks them 18th in the league. The Giants are 24th in scoring defense, allowing 26.3 points per game. New York ranks 23rd in total defense, allowing an average of 377.7 yards per game. Unlike the the Giants offense, the defense excels in the red zone. They’ve only allowed opposing offenses to score touchdowns on 51.1% of their red zone opportunities.
The Washington Redskins are finally succumbing to all of the injuries they’ve suffered this season. Washington started the season 6-3 and led the NFC East. They have since lost 3 straight games and fallen to 3rd in the NFC East. The Redskins lost 23-21 to the Houston Texans, 31-23 to the Dallas Cowboys, and then 28-13 to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys are 7-5 while the Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles are 6-6. The Eagles own the tiebreaker over the Redskins because of last week’s Monday Night Football defeat. Not only did Washington lose the MNF game, they also lost two significant players. Quarterback Colt McCoy, who replaced the injured Alex Smith, is now out for the season with a broken fibula. Washington will now rely on 3rd-string QB Mark Sanchez to try to take them to the playoffs. Sanchez was signed a couple of weeks ago, and struggled on the field last Monday. He went 13 for 21 for 100 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Offensive lineman Tony Berstrom also suffered an ankle injury against Philadelphia and he’s been ruled out in this game against the Giants. All told, the Redskins have lost 2 quarterbacks, 2 running backs, 3 wide receivers, and 5 offensive guards. Yet, Washington is only 1/2 game out of the final Wild Card spot. If they can right the ship for the final quarter of the season, they can still make the playoffs. No matter who the quarterback has been, the Washington offense has been bad. They’re 27th in yards per play, total offense, and scoring offense. They have averaged 5.2 yards per play, 323.4 yards per game, and 19.4 points per game. The Redskins convert 36.9% of their 3rd down attempts, ranking 23rd in the NFL. Washington’s defense has been slightly better than their offense. Surprisingly they are 8th in scoring defense, allowing 21.4 points per game. However, they are tied for 18th in yards per play allowed and tied for 19th in total defense. Their impressive scoring defense numbers are driven by two things, their red zone defense and their ability to force takeaways. They are 9th in defensive red zone touchdown percentage and 4th in turnovers forced. Washington is also 4th with a +9 turnover margin. In order for Washington to win, they have to win the turnover battle.
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
NY Giants is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Washington is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Washington’s last 16 games
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Free NFL Prediction New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
I like Washington to cover the spread in this match-up. Even with Mark Sanchez at QB, I struggle to take a road favorite as bad as the Giants to cover a spread over 3 points. Before the Monday Night game was played, the look-ahead line on this games was Redskins -1.5. Going from Colt McCoy to Mark Sanchez does not justify a 5 point shift in the point spread. Regardless of the quarterback, the Redskins have not been led by their offense. I expect the Washington defense to force turnovers against a turnover-prone QB in Eli Manning. If the Giants drive down the field, they will not be able to punch the ball into the end zone. Sanchez will have a full week of 1st team practice reps, so he will perform much better than he did last week. Jay Gruden will feed Adrian Peterson and let him carry the offense where it needs to go. Take Washington and the points.