NFL MVP Predictions and Odds
Five weeks into the NFL season, we’ve seen some sensational play by teams but some players have stood out above the rest. Let’s look at some NFL future bets on MVP since there are some solid candidates in the field at the moment. Previous winners are usually quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Tom Brady just to name a few and deservedly so, but I have a dark horse candidate that plays on the other side of the ball who has a real chance with the turnaround of his team.
First, let’s take a look at the candidates, courtesy of Sports and Odds. Excluding players who are on a team with a losing record or haven’t played in more than 3 games.
PATRICK MAHOMES 5-2
JARED GOFF 6-1
DREW BREES 8-1
TODD GURLEY 10-1
TOM BRADY 10-1
ALVIN KAMARA 16-1
CAM NEWTON 30-1
KHALIL MACK 35-1
EZEKIEL ELLIOT 50-1
TYREEK HILL 65-1
ANDY DALTON 75-1
JOE FLACCO 75-1
When I look at the list, it’s clear to me that this race is very open, but the top candidates are really defined. The top 3 to me are Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, and my dark horse Khalil Mack.
Drew Brees is leading a great charge in New Orleans with a 3-1 record. He has performed against tough opponents in the Buccaneers, Browns, Falcons, and Giants. In all but the last game against the Giants he has had a 114+ passer rating. He has been the catalyst of the offense in his vintage Drew Brees form. His defense is forcing to him into shootouts and he is coming through with clutch performances. With the return of Mark Ingram after his 4-game suspension and Alvin Kamara being such a threat in the rushing and receiving game, Brees will fade into the background like last year.
Ezekiel Elliott is the only spark on offense for the Dallas Cowboys. The past 2 games he has been over 100 yards rushing. Including hitting a career high of 240 total yards against the Detroit Lions porous rush defense. That being said, I don’t think the team will get enough wins for him to nab the award standing with a 2-3 record.
You can never count out a Tom Brady and an Aaron Rodgers, but I think the NFL is going through “Golden Boy” fatigue at the moment and are looking for someone fresh.
Therefore, we are left with Mahomes, Goff, and Mack.
If we are being honest it is between Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes. They play the quarterback position on high-powered offensive teams and are leading them to undefeated seasons so far.
In my opinion, I think it will come down to who has more wins since both have comparable stats. Goff wins it because the defense is better than the Chiefs which translates to more wins.
Don’t get me wrong Mahomes has been historic through the first 4 games throwing 14 TDs along with 1500 yards and a passer rating of 126.5 but the defense will be the downfall of his MVP campaign. Also, the Chiefs are known for starting off hot and tailing off towards the end of the season and I don’t see any reason why it won’t be the same this year.
Jared Goff has an excellent supporting cast of Gurley, Cupp, Cooks, and Woods and talent-overload on defense. He has looked more comfortable in the Sean McVay offensive system. Putting up numbers of 1700 yards, 12 TDs with a passer rating of 127.3. Even having a prefect passer rating in the past game against the Minnesota defense.
Now, I want to show my dark horse Khalil Mack some serious love. I have personally never seen a player come onto a team a week before the season and have the impact that he is having. He is the clear Defensive Player of the Year through four weeks and it isn’t close.
- Mack in just 4 games has recorded 14 tackles, 5 sacks, 1 INT which he returned for a touchdown. Also, in all four games he has forced a fumble. It just isn’t the numbers that should warrant MVP consideration; it is the attention that he attracts on the field.
- A Chicago Bears team that was a top 10 defense without him last year has now skyrocketed into a top 3 defense with the impact of Mack being the biggest reason. The Bears are standing at a 3-1 record; 2 wins away from matching their win total from last season.
- A defensive player hasn’t won MVP since 1986 that being Lawrence Taylor with the Super Bowl winning New York Giants. With Mack’s statistic trajectory being as it is, he could be in Taylor’s realm sooner than later. MACK for MVP!