NFL Parley Picks – AFC Wild Card Weekend
Indianapolis Colts (10-6) vs. Houston Texans (11-5)
January 5, 2019 4:35 ET (NRG Stadium)
Indianapolis Colts +100 Houston Texans -120
Spread: Houston Texans -1.5
FREE NFL Picks Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts and Texans kick off this NFL playoffs Wild Card weekend at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Quarterback Andrew Luck and the 6th seed Colts enter this playoff game with a 10-6 record after beating the 9-6 Tennessee Titans 33-17 to finish in second place in the AFC South in week 17. The Colts and Texans met two other times during the regular season as divisional rivals. The Texans won the first match-up at Indianapolis in OT with a final score of 37-34, while the Colts won the second match-up in Houston with the score of 24-21. The 11-5 3rd seed Texans finished the regular season ranked 32nd in scoring defense with 27.3 points allowed per game, while the Colts ended up ranked 30th with 25.3 points allowed per game.
Needless to say, the two games were decided by field goals. The Texans are coming off a 20-3 win over the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars. While the two teams still have a lot more to play for, players from both teams have received recognition for their individual accomplishments. PFF announced two days ago that Luck was named Comeback Player of the Year. Luck finished the 2018 regular season ranked 5th in total passing yards with 4,593 yards, he threw 39 TDs-15 INTs, had a completion percentage of 67.3, and had a passer-rating of 98.7. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and defensive end J.J. Watt made the 2018 AP All-Pro Team for the Houston Texans.
Cover The Spread 365 Trends
Indianapolis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis’s last 14 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 3-8-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
ESPN NFL Scores Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
The Colts snapped the Texans’ 9 game winning streak with their 24-21 win over them in the second match-up. Both teams have their issues on defense, especially regarding scoring defense. The Colts and the Texans have struggled against the pass. Indianapolis finished the regular season ranked 28th in passing defense, while Houston closed out their schedule ranked 24th. With two great quarterbacks behind the center, Deshaun Watson and Andrew Luck, many viewers are expecting somewhat of a higher scoring game.
Pick: Texans -3.5
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Los Angeles Chargers (14-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
January 6, 2019 1:05 ET (M&T Bank Stadium)
Odds: Chargers +135, O/U 41
Spread: Baltimore Ravens -3
FREE NFL Picks Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The 12-4 5th seed Los Angeles Chargers will be playing the 4th seed 10-6 Baltimore Ravens in Baltimore, Maryland in this season’s Wild Card weekend. Philip Rivers and the Chargers enter this game with the 3rd ranked scoring defense, while Lamar Jackson and the Ravens possess the league’s 6th ranked scoring defense. Statistically, the two teams are great defensively, and the Chargers have the best wild card record. Rivers finished the 2018 regular season ranked 8th in passing yards with 4,308 total yards, an average completion percentage of 68.3, and a passer-rating of 105.5. The Chargers have beaten the Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Kansas City Chiefs on the road this season in arguably their best wins.
The Baltimore Ravens beat the Los Angeles Chargers with a final score of 22-10 in week 16 of the regular season, but as shown above, the Bolts are more than capable of beating talented teams on the road. Lamar Jackson will be the youngest quarterback in NFL history to start in a playoff game at the age of 21. Jackson 1,201 passing yards, 695 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns. Justin Tucker, who’s the Ravens’ clutch kicker, made the AP All-Pro First Team list. Tucker is the only player on Baltimore’s roster to make the All-Pro Team this season. Three Chargers’ players made the All-Pro Team: Safety Derwin James, Defensive Back Desmond King, and Special Teamer Adrian Phillips.
Cover the Spread 365 Trends
Los Angeles Chargers
5-1 ATS in last six playoff games as road underdogs
6-0 ATS on the road in conference games this season
7-1 S/U and ATS on the road this season
1-5 ATS in last six home games
3-3 ATS in home conference games this season
Rookie QBs are 1-5 S/U in playoff games since 2012
ESPN NFL Scores Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
While the Chargers and Ravens match up well defensively, the Bolts have the better passing game. The Chargers also finished the regular season ranked 6th in total scoring offense. The Ravens closed their season to finish at 13th in total offense. Those three All-Pro players on the chargers, Derwin James, Desmond King, and Adrian Phillips, shouldn’t be overlooked. For rushing defense, the Baltimore Ravens rank 4th in the league, while the Chargers rank 9th. For another point to consider, rookie quarterbacks in the post-season have not fared well against top 10 scoring defenses. If the Chargers shut down the Ravens’ running game, this will force Jackson to pass. It’s a fair bet to take the Chargers over the Ravens in this game.
Pick: Chargers +130