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Home > NFL > NFL Wild Card DFS Analysis: Sleepers, Busts, and More 01-04-19

NFL Wild Card DFS Analysis: Sleepers, Busts, and More 01-04-19

NFL Playoff  Fantasy Football

Stars to Play

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts ($8.4k)

Ezekiel Elliot, RB, Dallas Cowboys ($8.8k)

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans ($9.5k)

Trey Burton, TE, Chicago Bears ($6.2k)

Chicago Bears Defense ($6k)

Andrew Luck is due for a great playoff passing performance. He threw 3 TDs-1 INT, passed for 285 yards, had a completion percentage of 68.6, and had a passer-rating of 109.8 against the Tennessee Titans’ defense, which ranked 6th against the pass with the 3rd ranked scoring defense. The Texans have the 5th ranking scoring defense in the league, but they’re also playing with a pass defense ranked 28th. Luck’s offensive line finished the season ranked as the league’s third best.

Ezekiel Elliott is arguably the most valuable running back in the NFL right now. He averages about 96 rushing yards per game this season and has racked up the most total rushing yards with 1,434 yards. The Seattle Seahawks are ranked 13th in rushing defense and have the 11th ranked scoring defense. In the first match-up, the Seahawks beat the Cowboys with a final score of 24-13. Elliott still rushed for 127 yards, while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt. He made the Second Team All-Pro for the season.

DeAndre Hopkins is another player who’s due for a big performance. In the 2018 regular season, he finished second in total receiving yards with 1,572 total yards and 3rd in receptions. The Indianapolis Colts are entering this game with the 16th ranked passing defense and the 10th ranked scoring defense. Divisional rivals are the most familiar with one another and each other’s game plans. Having said that, Luck and Watson will be throwing the ball all game long.

Trey Burton might just have a field-day against this Eagles’ secondary on Sunday. The current projection from FanDuel is 8.12 points. The Philadelphia Eagles have the 30th ranked passing defense and the 12th ranked scoring defense. If Trubisky can get him the ball enough, he’ll have another decent performance. Burton knows all about his former team.

The Chicago Bears’ defense is statistically the best defense in the league based on total points allowed. They allowed only 17 points per game on average in the regular season. Playing in Soldier Field in the windy city of Chicago is their comfort zone. The Philadelphia Eagles are ranked 14th in total yards of offense. Perhaps, the Eagles could be a completely different playoff team with Nick Foles behind the center.

 

Big Sleepers

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears ($8.1k)

Gus Edwards, RB, Baltimore Ravens ($7.2k)

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts ($8.4k)

 

Statistically, Trubisky will be facing one of the weaker defenses in this Wild Card weekend. Trubisky had an up and down season throughout the regular season. He threw 24 TDs-12 INTs, had an average completion percentage of 66, and passed for 3,322 yards. He could very well have a breakout game against the Eagles’ weak pass defense.

Gus Edwards averaged 65.3 yards per game back in the regular season. He closed out the regular season as the leading rusher on the Baltimore Ravens. It will be difficult for the Chargers’ rushing defense to stop both Jackson and Edwards, if push comes to shove. This running back hasn’t fumbled at all this season in 11 games played.

T.Y. Hilton will have a great opportunity to rack up stats against the Texans’ weak pass defense. In the regular season, he averaged 90 yards per game, had 1,270 receiving yards, 76 receptions, and scored six touchdowns. According to FanDuel, his projected points are 15.53. The Colts’ offensive line played great against the Titans to secure the 6th playoff spot for the team. They could bring the same performance against the Texans.

Busts

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens ($8.4k)

Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks ($7.5k)

John Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens ($4.7k)

Hunter Henry, TE, Los Angeles Chargers ($4.9k)

Philadelphia Eagles Defense ($5.3k)

Although Lamar Jackson is having a good season, he’s the youngest quarterback to ever start in an NFL post-season game at the age of 21. His inexperience and the team’s lack of a top passing game may come back in the end to hurt the Ravens. The Los Angeles Chargers have the 8th ranked scoring defense, 9th ranked rushing defense, and 9th ranked passing defense. Furthermore, the Chargers have beaten the Seahawks, Steelers, and Chiefs all on the road.

From FanDuel, Chris Carson is projected to have 14.33 points. However, depending on the game day because the Cowboys are quite inconsistent, the team can be difficult to run the ball against at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Dallas is ranked 5th in rushing defense. They’ve only allowed 1,513 rushing yards for the season at 3.8 yards per attempt. The Cowboys also rank 6th in scoring defense.

John Brown is projected to have 7.39 points against the Los Angeles Chargers in Baltimore. The Bolts’ secondary has played decent throughout the course of the regular season. Their opponents’ completion percentage is 64.1 with a passer-rating of 89.1. As stated above, LA has actually played better on the road against playoff contenders and teams with winning records.

Hunter Henry and the Chargers are about to perform in a rematch against the Baltimore Ravens on the road. The Ravens’ 5th ranked pass defense will not only affect the wide receivers, but the larger tight ends as well. If the pass rush gets to Rivers often enough, such as sacking him four times and forcing three turnovers like in the first match-up, it will pose another test to the Chargers’ offense as a whole. Not to mention, Hunter’s injury could possibly keep him out of the game.

The Philadelphia Eagles’ defense is ranked 12th in scoring. They gave up 21 points per game on average throughout the regular season. Although Mitchell Trubisky is prone to making mistakes as an inexperienced post-season quarterback, they still have the 11th ranked offensive line. The Eagles’ pass rush might not be enough to overcompensate for their 30th ranked passing defense.

James Foglio
James Foglio
James Foglio is from Dallas, Texas. He earned his B.A. in English & Creative Writing from Southern New Hampshire University. He enjoys helping people to win at sports betting. He covers the NFL, NBA, and MLB.
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