Some people say the NFL offseason is boring, but so far this offseason has had some of the most exciting moves and trades. Some of the most exciting trades would have to be the trade of Odell Beckham Jr. from the New York Giants to the Cleveland Browns as well as the trade of Antonio Brown from the Pittsburg Steelers to the Oakland Raiders.
Now, many speculate the season these two will have with their new teams and rightfully so as they are two of the best receivers in the game. Many eyes will be on them to perform with their new team, so why not break it down and show the people what they should expect from these two franchise players.
Odell Beckham Jr./Cleveland Browns – Total Receptions: Over/Under 89.5
Odell Beckham Jr. had one of his worst years in receptions in 2018 and it had a lot to do with a struggling Eli Manning. He only had 77 receptions which is his second-lowest, his lowest being 25 when he only played four games out of the season, but in 2018 he played 12 games. Other than in 2018 Odell Beckham Jr. had an average of 96 receptions in his first three years.
Now, Odell Beckham Jr. has struggled with injuries in his short career in the NFL and that has always been a downside to Odell Beckham Jr.. In retrospect 2019 receptions have a lot to do with if he can stay healthy. If he is healthy you can pretty much guarantee he will receive over 89.5. Baker Mayfield is a young quarterback that is still learning and getting better each day and Cleveland has many different options on the offensive side of the ball and I feel like that will only help Beckham get open more, get less double teams and help him stay more grounded as a player.
I think his new team will help him have a bounce back season, if healthy I would go with over 89.5 receptions.
Odell Beckham Jr./Cleveland Browns – Receiving Yards: Over/Under 1,150
Odell Beckham Jr. had 1,052 yards last season with a struggling Giants team that could hardly make passes down the field. Beckham is now on a team with a young roster, with a quarterback that loves to look down field. It would be crazy for me to think Beckham can’t get 100 more yards with a flourishing new team with great receivers that make it easier for Beckham to be open and see less double coverage.
Expect Beckham to get over 1,150 yards with the Browns.
Odell Beckham Jr./Cleveland Browns – Touchdowns: Over/Under 9
Beckham struggled to get the same scoring opportunities as he did in his first three years where he averaged double digit touchdowns, but it had nothing to do with the amount of games he played because he played most of the season, 12 games. He just wasn’t able to get down field and Eli Manning looked for quick trigger passes because of the poor Giants offensive line.
I think things will be different on the Browns, but as I said before the Browns have more of a dynamic offense with great receivers and running backs. Beckham will get the deep long passes he wants, but I don’t think he will be their first target close to the red zone as they would rather take an easier look by handing it off to one of their developing running backs.
Expect Beckham to get more looks downfield, but not enough to get double-digit touchdowns. My prediction is Beckham will get under nine touchdowns.
Antonio Brown/Oakland Raiders – Total Receptions: Over/Under 95.5
Since the 2013 season Brown has had triple digit receiving numbers and his average since 2013 is 114 receptions. His age and the number of seasons he has played is defiantly getting up there, but he still seems to be producing the same numbers, so I expect him to go over 95.5 receptions with his new QB, Derek Carr, as he will most likely be the new go to receiver for the Raiders.
Antonio Brown/Oakland Raiders – Receiving Yards: Over/Under 1,100.5
Antonio Brown has only gone under 1,100 yards twice in his career, his rookie season when he played only nine games and in 2012 when he only played 13 games. Other than those two seasons Brown has gone over 1,100 yards in seven of his nine seasons.
Derek Carr threw for over 4,000 yards last season with no real go to receiver. With the acquisition of Brown, Carr now has a go to receiver. Carr completed 68 percent of his passes and if he produces the same kind of numbers next season I don’t see Brown going under 1,100.5 yards. Brown will be Carr’s go to receiver and now that Carr has a long range threat I guarantee Carr will take shots down the field to Brown. Expect Brown to get over 1,100.5 yards.
Antonio Brown/Oakland Raiders – Touchdowns: Over/Under 9
Antonio Brown has had nine touchdowns in his last five season, as well as a career-high 15 last season. So from those numbers, you would pretty much guarantee that Brown would get over nine touchdowns, but don’t be so quick to judge off those numbers. With Brown having a new quarterback who is less experienced and is still working on getting better and finding his groove their will be times Brown should get a touchdown and doesn’t.
Ben Roethlisberger was 1st in yards and he had 34 touchdown passes in the 2018 season. Roethlisberger has always been a pass first QB that relies on his arm and his receivers. Carr is a great passer and did well getting his yards but he only had 19 touchdown passes which is significantly less than Roethlisberger and Brown would have to be on the receiving side of more than half of Carr’s touchdown passes if Carr has a repeat performance next season.
Although Carr has a harder time converting his passing yards into touchdowns I believe Brown is only going to help that situation. Expect Brown to get over nine touchdowns for the season.