You are here



Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) vs. New England Patriots (15-3)

NFL Football: Sunday, February 4th, 2018, 6:30 PM @ U.S. Bank Stadium

Line & Odds: New England Patriots -175        Spread: Patriots -4.5       Over/Under: 48


The New England Patriots are one of those teams that you either love them or you hate them. There is no in between. As a neutral party in all of this, I try and take a holistic view of the situation. Who am I going to take this Superbowl and why? Well, the answer is simple. I am taking the New England Patriots. Why you ask? There are so many reasons but I am going to narrow this conversation down to the five best reasons why taking the New England Patriots money line is the safest bet you could possibly take.

  1. The New England Patriots DO NOT turn the ball over

The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the top defenses in the league. Without a doubt, the Eagles defense is overall better than the Patriots defense. The only problem lies in the fact that the Eagles have relied heavily on turnovers to win games. In fact, the Eagles were fourth in the NFL in total takeaways having intercepted 19 passes and recovering 12 fumbles. Five of those fumbles were returned to the house for six points tied for the most in the NFL with who else but the Jacksonville Jaguars (New England’s most recent victim). There were only 4 instances this season in which the Eagles lost the turnover battle and they ended up losing 3 of those games.

That being said, the New England Patriots had the 4th fewest turnovers per game in the entire NFL this season. In fact, of the 12 total turnovers they gave up throughout the year, 8 of them came against their division rival Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets. That is, hands down, because they see each other two times a year and have been doing so since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady started their bromance. Assuming the Pats take care of the ball like they usually do, I cannot foresee the Eagles winning this game.

2. The Philadelphia Eagles are mediocre against the Pass

There is no need to talk about how good Tom Brady and the Patriots are. Especially when it comes to the passing scheme. Unfortunately for the Eagles, that is their biggest struggle on the defensive side of the ball. They ranked 17th against the pass. To put this into perspective, the Philadelphia Eagles gave up an average of 400 yards and 3 touchdowns to Eli Manning. And sure we can make the same argument that they are in the same division and see each other multiple times a year but seriously. C’mon. Eli Manning? Really? The guy was benched for what’s his name. (Yes I am aware his name is Geno Smith but I’m trying to make a point here).

If you can’t stop Eli Manning, you are NOT stopping Tom Brady.

3. Super Bowl Experience

Been there and done that. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have partaken in 7 super bowls since 2001. I mean, The Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars have never even been to one Superbowl. In other words, this is just another game for the Pats. Of course I know it isn’t just another game to them but experience matters. It will take some time for the nerves to settle once the whistle blows but Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be calmed well before the entire Eagles team. Let us not forget that the New England Patriots were trailing the explosive Atlanta Falcons 28-3 with just a little over a quarter to play in last year’s Superbowl. If you recall, cool hand Tom brought the Pats back to win 34-28.

The Eagles have no such experience and furthermore, will rely on back-up quarterback Nick Foles to lead the offense. This will not go well.

4. The Patriots have had 2 weeks to prepare

When you give Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots 2 weeks to prepare and secretly record your practices and deflate all of the footballs, you are in for a long day. No but seriously, the Patriots scheme is already hard enough to decipher. With 2 weeks of preparation, you can expect Belichick to have alot of that scheme disguised which will be a nightmare for the Eagles. And don’t think that Belichick’s scheme is simply on the offensive side. He is a master on the defensive scheme as well. Considering my previous point that the Eagles will be relying on back-up quarterback Nick Foles to lead them to the win, I guarantee the Patriots defense will disguise some coverages and put alot of pressure and the young QB.

5. Trends speak Volumes

There are a few trends that speak to me as we head into Superbowl LII. First, the Philadelphia Eagles are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against the New England Patriots. That is definitely not a good sign. Second, New England is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games overall. Also not a good sign. Now, what really makes me lean on the New England Patriots ML is that they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against the Eagles. Sure this is the Superbowl and trends are not always perfect but much like in the stock market, you never want to buy a stock when the chart shows it at it’s peak. Right?


All of these points are significant in one way or another. All of them seem to scream one thing at me. DON’T BET EAGLES!!! The truth is I think the Patriots are going to run away with it but to be safe (and because that is the premise of this article) I am riding the New England Patriots Money Line. The payout is solid as long as you bet the house! I know I am! Good luck out there and please remember to check out our other free NFL playoff picks courtesy of Cover the Spread 365!


What’s next for #Eagles quarterback Nick Foles? @zberm on the possibilities:

Despite being just four snaps short, @Eagles pay out @NickFoles' $1M playing-time bonus:

Drew Brees' speeches are absolute fire. 🔥🔥

The @Saints and @Eagles were #NFLMicdUp in the Divisional Round! (via @NFLFilms)

My 10th Annual #Eagles “Stay or Go?” Vote yourself on our interactive page:


The @Eagles' TOP 10 Plays of 2018!

Load More...

Back-to-back-to-back AFC Championships for the @Patriots! #EverythingWeGot #NFLPlayoffs

FINAL: The @Patriots are heading to another @SuperBowl! #EverythingWeGot #NFLPlayoffs

(by @Lexus)

Tom Brady & the @Patriots offense take the field first.

OT is underway. #NFLPlayoffs

📺: #NEvsKC on CBS

Rex Burkhead is IN.

@Patriots take the lead with 39 seconds left! #EverythingWeGot

📺: #NEvsKC on CBS

Load More...
Joe Garcia
Joe Garcia
Joe is our mathematician, so his approach relies on interpreting numbers. If baseball were Poker, you could say he’s a master at counting cards. Joe understands that statistics create patterns, which in turn foreshadow probabilities. His application of mathematical strategies has proven to be an invaluable asset for bettors. It’s not always about hitting 21, but rather always winning against the House.