Seattle Seahawks (4-4) at Los Angeles Rams (8-1)
NFL: Sunday, November 11th, 2018 at 4:25 pm (Los Angeles Coliseum)
Line and Odds: Los Angeles Rams -10 Over/Under: 51
Free NFL Pick Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Seattle Seahawks are coming off of a 25-17 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. It was a game that came down to a dropped touchdown pass on an untimed down at the end of the 4th quarter. The Seahawks have a habit of playing close games. Every Seattle loss this season has been by 8 points or less. One of those games was a 33-31 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams. Seattle has proven that they can compete with super bowl contenders. Now, we have to find out if they are also a contender or if they are just a basic 8-8 team that can rise up every now-and-then to challenge the big dogs. As is usually the case with the Seahawks under Pete Carroll, Seattle is led by their defense. The Seahawks are 5th in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 19.5 points per game. They give up 333.2 yards per game, making them 7th in total defense. Seattle is also 7th in turnovers forced, taking the ball away 16 times in 8 games.
The Seahawks allow opponents to convert just 36.0% of their 3rd down attempts, good for 7th in the NFL. LB Bobby Wagner leads the Seahawks in total tackles with 52. DE Frank Clark leads the team in sacks with 7.5. The Seahawks’ offense isn’t quite as strong. Seattle averages 5.4 yards per play which ranks 22nd in the NFL. The Seahawks rank just 26th in total offense, averaging 339.9 yards per game. Their scoring offense ranks 17th in the league, putting up 23.5 points per game. One of the brighter spots for the Seahawks’ offense is the ability to take care of the football. They’ve only turned the ball over 7 times all season, which ranks 3rd-best in the NFL. Because of Seattle’s strong turnover numbers on both sides of the ball, they rank 3rd in the league with the turnover margin of +9. The leader of the Seahawks offense, Russell Wilson, is having another strong season. Wilson has a 66.1% completion percentage, with 1,791 yards (8.1 yards per attempt), 18 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. His favorite target has been WR Tyler Lockett. Lockett has 28 receptions, 416 yards, and 6 TDs on 37 targets.
The Los Angeles Rams tasted defeat for the first time all season, last Sunday. Los Angeles lost 45-35 to the Saints in New Orleans. Losing in the Superdome to one of the best offenses in the league is nothing to be ashamed of. It was unrealistic to believe the Rams would go undefeated and they are still one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. They have a record of 8-1, but there are still questions about the Rams defensively. The Rams’ defense allows 6.0 yards per play, making them 24th in the NFL in that statistic. They are 24th in 3rd down defense, allowing opponents to convert 42.5% of their 3rd down attempts. However, the rest of Los Angeles’ defensive numbers are above average. The Rams rank 10th in both turnovers forced and scoring defense. Los Angeles has forced 14 turnovers in 9 games this season. L.A. has given up only 22.2 points per game, so they’ve been able to keep teams out of the end zone when necessary.
The Rams defense is led by All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Donald has racked up an astonishing 10.0 sacks in just 9 games this season. It’s rare to see a defensive tackle creating so many sacks at that pace. LB Cory Littleton is one of the most productive linebackers in the league, totaling 75 tackles through 9 games. This is a defense with a lot of talent, but we have to see whether or not it will gel into an elite unit. There are no such questions about the strength of the Rams’ offense. Los Angeles has the #1 total offense in the league, averaging 447.1 yards per game. The Rams are 3rd in yards per play with an average of 6.9 ypp. They’ve only turned the ball over 7 times, good for 3rd-best in the NFL. L.A. is also 3rd in scoring offense, putting up 33.2 points per game. The Rams actually have 2 MVP candidates in one backfield. QB Jared Goff has a 67.9% completion percentage, with 2,816 yards (9.6 yards per attempt), 20 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. RB Todd Gurley has 868 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns on 182 carries. Additionally, he has 362 receiving yards, 37 receptions, and 4 receiving touchdowns on 49 targets.
Cover The Spread 365 Betting Trends
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Seattle is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
LA Rams is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Rams’s last 17 games when playing Seattle
Free NFL Prediction Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
I like the Seahawks against the spread in this match-up. Despite the Saints loss, I still believe the Rams are the best team in the NFC. However, -10 is too big of a spread for me. Even without Earl Thomas, Seattle’s defense has been strong. The most I’ve seen the Rams offense struggle was the 1st half against Green Bay. I believe Seattle can replicate the Green Bay model of penetrating the rush lanes, pressuring the QB,and covering the dynamic WRs tightly. Seattle’s offense has been hit-and-miss but they can give the Rams defense problems. Rams CB Marcus Peters has played poorly over the last couple of games and I believe Seattle can pick on him down the field. Russell Wilson is playing at a high level and it’s hard to bet against an elite QB getting 10 points. Take Seattle and the points.