Super Bowl 53 QB Prop Bets
Super Bowl 53 will feature a very interesting Quarterback battle. In one corner you have the old guard, the greatest QB to ever play in 41 year old Tom Brady; a man who on Sunday will appear in his ninth (NINTH!!!!!!) Super bowl, having won five of them already. In the other corner, you have a new up-and-comer Jared Goff who is coming of a Pro Bowl season in which he threw for 4,688 yards, 32 touchdowns and only 12 INTS (a QBR of 66). To put that into perspective, the only Rams QB to throw for more yards in a single season is Hall of Famer, Kurt Warner. It is a high powered QB match-up so lets take a look at the possible prop bets for the each of these guys:
Passing Yards: Tom Brady over/under 319.5
In his previous 8 Super Bowl appearances, Brady has thrown for more than 320 yards four times. The Rams defense this season was great against the run (5th overall in least rushing yards allowed) but only 13th against the pass. The Rams have the ability to score points in bunches so I would say Brady is going to have to do the heavy lifting Sunday.
The Pick: Tom Brady over 319.5
Passing Yards: Jared Goff over/under 290.5
As confident as I am in Brady going over his total, I am way less confident in this bet. For the Rams to win this game, I believe that Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson are going to have to have big days or at least combine for a solid outing. Bill Belichick’s defensive philosophy is to take away the teams best offensive player and make everyone else beat you so he will definitely focus in on Gurley but I think the Rams will be able to establish the run and what is a shaky New England run defense. I think Goff has a nice game but I don’t think he gets to the number.
The Pick: Jared Goff under 290.5
Passing Touchdowns: Tom Brady over/under 2.5
I think there will be plenty of points scored in this game. I am way more confident in Brady getting the ball in the end zone for the Patriots than the running game getting in with the defensive front that the Rams have which includes the likes of Ndamukong Suh, Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers.
The Pick: Tom Brady over 2.5 Passing TDs
Passing Touchdowns: Jared Goff over/under 2
This number, I think is actually on the nose. The Patriots secondary is a strength of the team but I feel like the Rams will try to establish the run. If I were to bet, I would bet a push on his bet; 2 seems right for Goff. But if your book doesn’t allow for a push, then..
The Pick: Jared Goff over 2 Passing TDs
Total Completions: Tom Brady over/under 27.5
This to me is the easiest bet of the bunch. If the Pats are going to win this game or even keep this game close, this number has to be over. I believe that will be the case. I can’t see Brady completing less than 30 passes in this game.
The Pick: Tom Brady over 27.5 completions
Total Completions: Jared Goff over/under 23.5
While the Brady over/under total to me seems simple, this one does not. The run game has to be a major factor for the Rams to win. I think Goff will put up a high completion percentage but I can’t see him throwing it close to 50 times like Brady will, however a 24-40 type performance gives you the over so…
The Pick: Jared Goff over 23.5 total completions
Total Pass Attempts: Tom Brady over/under 37.5
I think the total completions over for Brady is a lock. This is a nice bet to double down on that. There is no way Brady’s attempts is under 45 unless something goes horribly wrong for the Pats.
The Pick: Tom Brady pass attempts over 37.5
Total Pass Attempts: Jared Goff over/under 35.5
It’s going to be a high scoring affair. As much as the Rams will try to run the ball, I do see a lot of play action passes in this one. This number seems too low.
The Pick: Jared Goff pass attempts over 35.5
Total Rushing yards: Tom Brady over/under 2.5
This is an interesting bet. A couple of factors to consider here. The QB sneak is a Tom Brady specialty. He’s the best at it. If he gets 2 successful sneaks, the over probably hits. I can’t see him eluding the defensive front 4 for the Rams if he decides to roll out; he’s 41 and slow as dirt. But then there is the potential kneel down for negative yardage. This is tricky.
The Pick: Tom Brady over 2.5 rushing yards
Total Rushing Yards: Jared Goff over/under 8.5
Again, if you like the Rams, the kneel down is potentially an option. I do think Goff will be rolling out on play action throws which are a staple in the Rams offense. Unlike Brady, Goff can run. I like this over a lot.
The Pick: Jared Goff over 8.5 rushing yards
Total Interceptions: Tom Brady over/under .5
A lot of attempts for Brady, I think one gets picked.
The Pick: Tom Brady total INTs over .5
Total Interceptions: Jared Goff over/under .5
Goff is going to put the ball up over 35.5 times. I use the same logic here that I did with Brady.
The Pick: Jared Goff over .5 INTs