Free Super Bowl 53 Picks
The legend. The future. The NFL features a generational Super Bowl as the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams get together to compete in this year’s biggest game. The two teams feature quarterbacks on opposite sides of the age spectrum. Brady, 41 is Mr. Experience, playing in his 9th Super Bowl. Goff, 24 is in his third year in the NFL.
When it comes to Super Bowl quarterback prop bets, there are six categories. Each prop has its own set of Over and Under odds for you to cash in on.
Super Bowl QB Prop Bet Categories
Total Super Bowl Passing Yards
Tom Brady (Over/Under 319.5)
Brady has passed the 300 mark in four of eight Super Bowls. The Rams passing defense isn’t the most elite by any stretch. They rank 13th in the league allowing a total of 217.2 yards per game. (The lowest, Tampa Bay, allows 260.0 yards per game.)
The Rams defense on the other side, ranks 5th in rush yards allowed. No team has really been able to stop Sony Michel this season, but the big bodies of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh getting in the way wouldn’t be surprising.
I would expect Brady to pass more to stay in stride with young Jared Goff’s explosive arm. New England has spent the majority of time in the last two Super Bowls playing catch up and if that’s the case here, Brady will definitely hit the Over.
Jared Goff (Over/Under 290.5)
Goff has plenty of reasons to excel in his first Super Bowl. First of all,the Patriots pass defense ranks 29th. I would expect the Rams to utilize Josh Reynolds, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods all day long, especially since the rush defense of the Patriots ranks a respectable 13th. Plus, Todd Gurley’s health is still uncertain.
The only thing that gives me a slight pause is that Goff will be facing the mystical aura of Brady and Co. The pressure is paramount, but since Goff has shown that he can make the plays in big games, I’ll give him the Over.
Super Bowl Touchdown Passes
Tom Brady (Over/Under 2.5)
Looking back in history, Brady has thrown at least three touchdown passes in just three of his eight Super Bowls. That doesn’t favor the Over.
Plus, this season we have seen the Patriots utilize the run game in the red zone far more than the passing game. Sony Michel is almost unstoppable down there. The rookie has five touchdowns in two playoff games.
I’ll take the Under in regards to this more balanced Patriots offense.
Jared Goff (Over/Under 2)
Goff got the ball in the endzone all the time in the regular season, but in two playoff contests, Goff has thrown a single touchdown. Yes, the Cowboys and Saints have way better pass defenses than the Patriots, but you can’t rely on one part of your offense to get it done.
Definitely take the Over in this one as the Super Bowl is likely to be a shootout. Brady will put up points. Goff must too. The best way to do it is against a horrendous Pats secondary.
Super Bowl Completions
Tom Brady (Over/Under 27.5)
Brady has hit the Over in five out of eight Super Bowls, so there’s a good chance that this one adds onto that list. Neither team has an elite pass defense, and this game looks like a shootout. Easily Over.
Jared Goff (Over/Under 23.5)
I’m surprised that this number is this low. Probably because Goff has thrown for 15 and 25 completions in his playoff victories. Note that Goff has been going against elite defenses in those two contests. The Patriots simply don’t have that.
Brady and Goff are likely both going to put up stellar numbers, and the obvious offensive overpower lets me think that Goff will hit the Over in a very explosive game.
Super Bowl Pass Attempts
Tom Brady (Over/Under 37.5)
This one surprises me a bit more considering the balance that New England has established this season. But the Rams defense gave up 50 and 48 rush yards respectively to the Cowboys and Saints.
The pace of this game is seemingly fast paced, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Brady hits the Over.
Jared Goff (Over/Under 35.5)
CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley have formed a dangerous two-headed dynamic. Again, the same thing as the completions apply: both teams have good run defenses, but not very good pass defenses. It should be easy to pick Over.
Super Bowl Interceptions
Tom Brady (Over/Under 0.5)
Brady has gone Over 0.5 in five of his eight Super Bowls. While the Rams secondary isn’t too good, they seem to make clutch plays when they most need to. I would take the Over.
Jared Goff (Over/Under 0.5)
Goff has thrown 1 interception in three playoff games, and that wasn’t even his fault. The ball went through Gurley’s hands. Goff has been pretty accurate and secure with the ball. I would take the Under.
Super Bowl Rushing Yards
Tom Brady (Over/Under 2.5)
Brady is a pocket passer and his elite offensive line gives him the time he needs so he doesn’t have to run around. I still expect him to go Over 2.5 yards–especially in a critical situation.
Jared Goff (Over/Under 8.5)
Goff isn’t a statue but he isn’t Lamar Jackson either. He runs when he sees wholes, so Over 8.5 won’t be too tough.