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Super Bowl LIII: Who To Bet On and Who To Pass on 2-1-2019 Free NFL Pick, Prediction and Odds

Free NFL Pick Who to Bet for and Against in Super Bowl LIII

Super Bowl LIII will include many stars that you could almost create a Pro Bowl roster on its own. You have a veteran and a rising star set to face each other at quarterback with Tom Brady and Jared Goff. Todd Gurley and Sony Michel, who were once Georgia Bulldogs teammates, now control the backfields of the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots with Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks running routes. That is just a few of the offensive talent without even getting into the defense. With so many great players, some are bound to out perform others. Who is the safe bet for and against? “Against” is an interesting word in this sense. A player like Edelman for example could have a respectable 80 yards receiving but, that number wouldn’t be to his standards and would fall short of the numbers Vegas predicts. Other players face the issue of getting carries taken away by a teammate. The betting lines used here were found on Bovada. Now time to find who is worth betting on for Sunday.

Bet Against: Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

Gurley is a star when he is on the field. The concern falls on why and when he isn’t. After his ran for over 100 yards in the division round against Dallas, he was just about absent production wise on the field in the NFC championship. The Rams have said nothing is wrong and head coach Sean McVay has stated he is “a hundred percent” ready for Sunday. Nevertheless, his over/under is set at 70.5. He had four carries for 10 yards in the last game against the Saints. He should have more production than that in the upcoming game.No matter what the strategy the Rams had in New Orleans, there’s no way they should’ve gone away from a guy like Gurley so soon. If he was injured that would be a different story. But even though he only got five touches, Gurley was still out on the field for 32 snaps. If he was injured, why was he still in the game.

The Saints took an early lead putting the Rams in a hole where they had to rely on Goff and throw the ball. It seemed like Gurley acted more as a decoy because C.J. Anderson had four times as many carries the rest of the game. If this was the regular season, sure rest is good but, this is playoffs with the season on line. You want your best players out there and right now Gurley doesn’t seem right and the Rams see it too.

With Anderson in the backfield with him, he is going to need a good start in order to come close to this figure. Then again, the Patriots are going to force the Rams to have Jared Goff beat them. If the Rams fall behind early again, count on the run game being counted out. Considering how the Rams have fared the past few games and having to face the Patriots, Gurley’s useage might fall flat anyways.

Bet For: Jared Goff, QB, Rams

If the Rams have any shot at winning this game it is up to their quarterback Jared Goff. He is young and has a bright future and now is the time to see if he has the poise to match Tom Brady. A come from behind victory against  the Saints had to be a major boost of confidence. Sure, 25 of 40 with a TD and a pick doesn’t look all that enticing. But leading a team from behind in the NFC Championship with such an opposing crowd, all while throwing for nearly 300 yards, is impressive. Goff will have to impress through the air and that can be achieved with McVay guiding him along the way. The numbers are not on his side as of late. In his last six games excluding week 17 against San Francisco, Goff averaged 214 yards with only three touchdowns. But that was in the regular season when they got to enjoy the explosiveness of Gurley in the backfield. With him questionable, and the idea of having to match the Patriots offense all game long, there shouldn’t be any problem with Goff exceeding his over/under of 289.5 for this game.

Bet Against: Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots

Chris Hogan is a player that can get numbers based on the fact that there are so many options for Brady that he gets left open for a big gain. He is a solid player and will have production but, gets lost when you have the likes of Edelman, Gronkowski, Sony Michel, and James White as preferable options.

He has the chance to be a red zone threat but not much more than that. The Rams’ defense could be fooled by blown coverage and Hogan might be able to sneak in a catch or two but he is more of a decoy. He has five catches against Kansas City, but other than week 17 against New York where he had six catches, he hasn’t had more than 5 catches in a game since mid-October. Hogan will have coverage of Aqib Talib for most of the game. There are other options for the Patriots and that isn’t a problem for Brady.His over/under of three receptions is based solely on that.

 Bet For: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots

He has been here before. He has been here many times before. Is there really a reason to bet against Tom Brady in a Super Bowl? The over/under on his passing yards is 300.5. He has averaged 322 in Super Bowls. That number soars to 433 in his last three. He feels no pressure playing on the games biggest stage. It seems he loves it.Throwing 328 against a great Seattle secondary is the type of numbers that make a legend. Coming back from a 25-point deficit against the Atlanta Falcons is just improbable and he makes it look easy. The Rams have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league giving way for Michel or White to break out and have a great game.

This offense line is in the zone and has no problem against strong defense. Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Chris Jones, and Dee Ford are some of the best pass-rushers who the Patriots faced in the two playoff games this season. Brady has yet to be sacked. Aaron Donald and Dante Fowler Jr. lead the strong defense of the Rams and will try to change that. Even so, Brady and the rest of New England are riding high on confidence, look for him to pass over 300.5 yards as he goes for his sixth Super Bowl win.




Chris Estrada
Chris Estrada
Chris has emerged as the go-to MLB sports writer. He is extremely knowledgeable about all of the major sports, is very likable, and has that self-deprecating sense of humor that's impossible to dislike. Chris will pick logic and reason every time over feelings and heart when choosing a game or series.